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Mortality in people with coeliac disease: long-term follow-up from a Scottish cohort

Quarpong, Wilhemina; Card, Timothy R.; West, Joe; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Logan, Richard F.A.; Grainge, Matthew J.


Wilhemina Quarpong

Clinical Associate Professor

Professor of Epidemiology

Masoud Solaymani-Dodaran

Richard F.A. Logan


Background: Few studies have determined the very long-term mortality risks in adult and childhood-diagnosed coeliac disease.

Objective: We quantified mortality risks in coeliac disease and determined whether age at diagnosis, or time following diagnosis modified these risks.

Methods: Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were determined using data from a cohort of 602 coeliac patients assembled between 1979 and 1983 from Lothian, Scotland, and followed up from 1970 until 2016.

Results: All-cause mortality was 43% higher than in the general population. Excess deaths were primarily from haematological malignancies (SMR, 4.77) and external causes (SMR, 2.62) in adult and childhood-diagnosed cases respectively. Mortality risks declined steadily with time in adult-diagnosed cases (SMR, 4.85 in first year compared to 0.97, 25 years post-diagnosis). Beyond 15 years, this group had a significantly reduced risk of any malignancy (SMR, 0.57 [95% CI: 0.33-0.92]). In contrast, for childhood-diagnosed cases an increased risk existed beyond 25 years (SMR, 2.24).

Conclusions: Adult-diagnosed coeliac patients have a temporary increased mortality risk mainly from malignant lymphomas and a decreased risk of any malignancy beyond 15 years post-diagnosis. In contrast, childhood-diagnosed cases are at an increased risk of mortality mainly from external causes, and have long-term mortality risks that requires further investigation.


Quarpong, W., Card, T. R., West, J., Solaymani-Dodaran, M., Logan, R. F., & Grainge, M. J. (2019). Mortality in people with coeliac disease: long-term follow-up from a Scottish cohort. United European Gastroenterology Journal, 7(3), 377-387.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Oct 29, 2018
Online Publication Date Nov 18, 2018
Publication Date Apr 1, 2019
Deposit Date Nov 1, 2018
Publicly Available Date Nov 1, 2018
Journal United European Gastroenterology Journal
Print ISSN 2050-6406
Electronic ISSN 2050-6414
Publisher SAGE Publications
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 7
Issue 3
Pages 377-387
Keywords Gastroenterology; Oncology
Public URL
Publisher URL


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