Predicting the Past: Testing Expert Historical Judgement
(2025)
Journal Article
Gill, D. J., Trachtenberg, M., Gill, M. J., Tetlock, P. E., Robb, T. K., Varnum, M. E. W., Hutcherson, C. A., Grossmann, I., & Trodd, Z. (in press). Predicting the Past: Testing Expert Historical Judgement. American Historical Review,
Absences pervade the historical record. The loss or destruction of material, redaction of documents, silence of participants, data embargoes, and poor record keeping present inherent difficulties to any understanding of the past. Gaps in the historic... Read More about Predicting the Past: Testing Expert Historical Judgement.