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All Outputs (92)

Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity (2024)
Journal Article
Liu, J., Li, D., Chen, H., Wang, H., Wada, Y., Gosling, S. N., Yang, H., Pokhrel, Y., & Ciais, P. (2024). Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity. Nature Communications, 15, Article 7129. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51302-z

Alleviating water scarcity is at the core of Sustainable Development Goal 6. Yet the timing of water scarcity in its onset and possible relief in different regions of the world due to climate change and changing human population dynamics remains poor... Read More about Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity.

Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia (2024)
Journal Article
Baigaliyeva, M., Mount, N., Gosling, S. N., & McGowan, S. (2024). Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia. PLoS ONE, 19(7), Article e0305721. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0305721

Endorheic lakes, lacking river outflows, are highly sensitive to environmental changes and human interventions. Central Asia (CA) has over 6000 lakes that have experienced substantial water level variability in the past century, yet causes of recent... Read More about Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia.

Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge (2024)
Journal Article
Heinicke, S., Volkholz, J., Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Müller Schmied, H., Zimmermann, S., Mengel, M., Sauer, I. J., Burek, P., Chang, J., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A. G., Otta, K., Qi, W., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Yokohata, T., & Frieler, K. (2024). Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge. Environmental Research Letters, 19(7), Article 074005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad52b0

Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the 'model evaluation and impact attribution' part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model... Read More about Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge.

Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology (2024)
Journal Article
Smith, M. W., Willis, T., Mroz, E., James, W. H., Klaar, M. J., Gosling, S. N., & Thomas, C. J. (2024). Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology. Science, 384(6696), 697-703. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adk8755

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vect... Read More about Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology.

A survey of past and future changes in global river flow (2024)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Gudmundsson, L., Brunner, M., Döll, P., Fluet-Chouinard, E., Gosling, S. N., Hirabayashi, Y., …Zhou, X. (2024, April). A survey of past and future changes in global river flow. Presented at EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria & Online

The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa (2024)
Journal Article
Kunda, J. J., Gosling, S. N., & Foody, G. M. (2024). The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa. International Journal of Biometeorology, 68, 1015-1033. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02650-4

This review examines high-quality research evidence that synthesises the effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa. Web of Science (WoS) was used to identify research articles on the effects extreme heat, humidity, Wet-bulb Globe Tem... Read More about The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa.

Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change (2024)
Journal Article
Porkka, M., Virkki, V., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Gerten, D., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., Fetzer, I., Jaramillo, F., Staal, A., te Wierik, S., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R., Döll, P., Flörke, M., Gosling, S. N., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Müller Schmied, H., Wanders, N., Famiglietti, J. S., …Kummu, M. (2024). Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change. Nature Water, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7

Human actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Here, using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrol... Read More about Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change.

Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a) (2024)
Journal Article
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., del Rocío Rivas López, M., …Bechtold, M. (2024). Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Geoscientific Model Development, 17(1), 1-51. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set... Read More about Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a).

Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models (2023)
Journal Article
Gnann, S., Reinecke, R., Stein, L., Wada, Y., Thiery, W., Satoh, Y., …Wagener, T. (2023). Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models. Nature Water, 1, 1079-1090. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00160-y

AbstractGlobal water models are increasingly used to understand past, present and future water cycles, but disagreements between simulated variables make model-based inferences uncertain. Although there is empirical evidence of different large-scale... Read More about Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models.

Use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir operations in global hydrological models: a case study from the CONUS (2023)
Journal Article
Otta, K., Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., & Hanasaki, N. (2023). Use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir operations in global hydrological models: a case study from the CONUS. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215

Although river discharge simulations from global hydrological models have undergone extensive validation, there has been less validation of reservoir operations, primarily because of limited observational data. However, recent advancements in satelli... Read More about Use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir operations in global hydrological models: a case study from the CONUS.

Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a) (2023)
Preprint / Working Paper
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., Rivas López, M. D. R., …Bechtold, M. Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, www.isimip.org) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human... Read More about Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a).

Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models (2022)
Report
Gnann, S., Reinecke, R., Stein, L., Wada, Y., Thiery, W., Müller Schmid, H., …Wagener, T. (2022). Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models

Global water models are widely used for policy-making and in scientific studies, but substantial inter-model differences highlight the need for additional evaluation. Here we evaluate global water models by assessing so-called functional relationship... Read More about Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models.

Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes (2022)
Journal Article
Virkki, V., Alanärä, E., Porkka, M., Ahopelto, L., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., …Kummu, M. (2022). Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(12), 3315-3336. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022

Human actions and climate change have drastically altered river flows across the world, resulting in adverse effects on riverine ecosystems. Environmental flows (EFs) have emerged as a prominent tool for safeguarding the riverine ecosystems, but at t... Read More about Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes.

The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change (2022)
Journal Article
Satoh, Y., Yoshimura, K., Pokhrel, Y., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Yokohata, T., …Oki, T. (2022). The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change. Nature Communications, 13(1), Article 3287. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2

Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examin... Read More about The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change.

Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments (2022)
Journal Article
Kumar, A., Gosling, S. N., Johnson, M. F., Jones, M. D., Zaherpour, J., Kumar, R., …Masaki, Y. (2022). Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments. Advances in Water Resources, 165, Article 104212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104212

Although global- and catchment-scale hydrological models are often shown to accurately simulate long-term runoff time-series, far less is known about their suitability for capturing hydrological extremes, such as droughts. Here we evaluated simulatio... Read More about Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments.

Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming (2021)
Journal Article
Thompson, J. R., Gosling, S. N., Zaherpour, J., & Laizé, C. L. R. (2021). Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming. Earth's Future, 9(11), Article e2021EF002048. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048

The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river e... Read More about Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming.

Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes (2021)
Journal Article
Thiery, W., Lange, S., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C. F., Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S. I., …Wada, Y. (2021). Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science, 374(6564), 158-160. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades (1–4). Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across thei... Read More about Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes.