All Outputs (94)

The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale (2013)
Journal Article
Arnell, N. W., & Gosling, S. N. (2013). The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale. Journal of Hydrology, 486, 351-364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP... Read More about The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale.

Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models (2013)
Journal Article
Thompson, J. R., Green, A. J., Kingston, D. G., & Gosling, S. N. (2013). Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models. Journal of Hydrology, 486, 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.029

Hydrological model-related uncertainty is often ignored within climate change hydrological impact assessments. A MIKE SHE model is developed for the Mekong using the same data as an earlier semi-distributed, conceptual model (SLURP). The model is cal... Read More about Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models.

The SSC: A decade of climate-health research and future directions (2013)
Journal Article
Hondula, D. M., Vanos, J. K., & Gosling, S. N. (2014). The SSC: A decade of climate-health research and future directions. International Journal of Biometeorology, 58(2), 109-120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0619-6

This year marks the tenth anniversary of the development of the revised Spatial Synoptic Classification, the "SSC", by Scott Sheridan. This daily weather-type classification scheme has become one of the key analytical tools implemented in a diverse r... Read More about The SSC: A decade of climate-health research and future directions.

A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change (2013)
Journal Article
Arnell, N. W., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Gosling, S. N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Nicholls, R. J., Osborn, T. J., Osborne, T. M., Rose, G. A., Smith, P., & Warren, R. F. (2013). A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3(5), 512-519. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1793

This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered h... Read More about A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change.

The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services (2012)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N. (2013). The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services. Environmental Science and Policy, 27(Supplement 1), S15-S31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.03.011

This article reviews the level of current scientific understanding regarding the impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services. Impacts from sea level rise, ocean acidification, increases in ocean temperature,... Read More about The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services.

"Vulnerability hotspots": Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought (2012)
Journal Article
Fraser, E. D., Simelton, E., Termansen, M., Gosling, S. N., & South, A. (2013). "Vulnerability hotspots": Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 195-205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.008

The purpose of this paper is to identify which of the world's cereal producing regions are likely to become vulnerable to climate change over the 21st century by identifying those regions that will be (1) exposed to climatic stress and (2) have a lim... Read More about "Vulnerability hotspots": Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models (2011)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., Taylor, R. G., Arnell, N. W., & Todd, M. C. (2011). A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(1), 279-294. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-279-2011

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six... Read More about A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models.

Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results (2011)
Journal Article
Haddeland, I., Clark, D. B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., Voß, F., Arnell, N. W., Bertrand, N., Best, M., Folwell, S., Gerten, D., Gomes, S., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hanasaki, N., Harding, R., Heinke, J., Kabat, P., Koirala, S., Oki, T., Polcher, J., …Yeh, P. (2011). Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12(5), 869-884. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1324.1

Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project [WaterModel Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP)], which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a... Read More about Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results.

The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: An example with heat-related mortality change estimates (2011)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., McGregor, G. R., & Lowe, J. A. (2012). The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: An example with heat-related mortality change estimates. Climatic Change, 112(2), 217-231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0211-9

The majority of climate change impacts assessments account for climate change uncertainty by adopting the scenario-based approach. This typically involves assessing the impacts for a small number of emissions scenarios but neglecting the role of clim... Read More about The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: An example with heat-related mortality change estimates.

A case study of avoiding the heat-related mortality impacts of climate change under mitigation scenarios (2011)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., & Lowe, J. A. (2011). A case study of avoiding the heat-related mortality impacts of climate change under mitigation scenarios. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 6, 104-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2011.05.011

We compare heat-related mortality impacts for three European cities, London, Lisbon and Budapest, under five climate change policies representing different dates at which carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions peak, rates at which emissions decline, and emis... Read More about A case study of avoiding the heat-related mortality impacts of climate change under mitigation scenarios.

A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part II: The global-scale impacts of climate change (2011)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., Warren, R., Arnell, N. W., Good, P., Caesar, J., Bernie, D., Lowe, J. A., van der Linden, P., O'Hanley, J. R., & Smith, S. M. (2011). A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part II: The global-scale impacts of climate change. Progress in Physical Geography, 35(4), 443-464. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133311407650

This article presents a review of recent developments in studies assessing the global-scale impacts of climate change published since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Literature covering six main im... Read More about A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part II: The global-scale impacts of climate change.

A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part I: Understanding of future change in the large-scale climate system (2011)
Journal Article
Good, P., Caesar, J., Bernie, D., Lowe, J. A., van der Linden, P., Gosling, S. N., Warren, R., Arnell, N. W., Smith, S., Bamber, J., Payne, T., Laxon, S., Srokosz, M., Sitch, S., Gedney, N., Harris, G., Hewitt, H., Jackson, L., Jones, C. D., O'Connor, F., …McNeall, D. (2011). A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part I: Understanding of future change in the large-scale climate system. Progress in Physical Geography, 35(3), 281-296. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133311407651

This article reviews some of the major lines of recent scientific progress relevant to the choice of global climate policy targets, focusing on changes in understanding since publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessm... Read More about A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part I: Understanding of future change in the large-scale climate system.

Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: Model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis (2011)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., & Arnell, N. W. (2011). Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: Model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis. Hydrological Processes, 25(7), 1129-1145. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7727

Global hydrological models (GHMs) model the land surface hydrologic dynamics of continental-scale river basins. Here we describe one such GHM, the Macro-scale-Probability-Distributed Moisture model.09 (Mac-PDM.09). The model has undergone a number of... Read More about Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: Model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis.

Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: A critical review of the literature (2008)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., Lowe, J. A., McGregor, G. R., Pelling, M., & Malamud, B. D. (2009). Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: A critical review of the literature. Climatic Change, 92(3-4), 299-341. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9441-x

The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this re... Read More about Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: A critical review of the literature.