All Outputs (2)

The role of uncertainty, sentiment and cross-country interactions in G7 output dynamics (2018)
Journal Article
Garratt, A., Lee, K., & Shields, K. (2018). The role of uncertainty, sentiment and cross-country interactions in G7 output dynamics. Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Canadienne d'Économique, 51(2), 391-418. https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12325

Output fluctuations in the G7 are characterised using a VAR model of countries' actual and expected outputs and uncertainty over these. New measures are developed to quantify the relative importance of economic prospects-versus-uncertainty, global-ve... Read More about The role of uncertainty, sentiment and cross-country interactions in G7 output dynamics.

Evaluating the use of real-time data in forecasting output levels and recessionary events in the US (2018)
Journal Article
Aristidou, C., Lee, K., & Shields, K. (2019). Evaluating the use of real-time data in forecasting output levels and recessionary events in the US. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 182(1), 131-163. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12366

The paper proposes a modelling framework and evaluation procedure to judge the usefulness of real-time datasets incorporating past data vintages and survey expectations in forecasting. The analysis is based on `meta models' obtained using model-avera... Read More about Evaluating the use of real-time data in forecasting output levels and recessionary events in the US.