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Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation

Smallman-Raynor, Matthew; Cliff, A.D.

Authors

A.D. Cliff



Abstract

The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940–1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.

Citation

Smallman-Raynor, M., & Cliff, A. (2014). Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation. Epidemiology and Infection, 142(3), 577-591. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268813001441

Journal Article Type Article
Online Publication Date Jul 1, 2013
Publication Date 2014-03
Deposit Date Jan 24, 2014
Publicly Available Date Jan 24, 2014
Journal Epidemiology and Infection
Print ISSN 0950-2688
Electronic ISSN 1469-4409
Publisher Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 142
Issue 3
Pages 577-591
DOI https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268813001441
Public URL http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/2271
Publisher URL http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9153609
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

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