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The golden hello and political transitions

Aidt, Toke S.; Albornoz, Facundo; Gassebner, Martin

Authors

Toke S. Aidt

Facundo Albornoz facundo.albornoz@nottingham.ac.uk

Martin Gassebner



Abstract

We analyze the influence of IMF and World Bank programs on political regime transitions. We develop an extended version of Acemoglu and Robinson’s [American Economic Review 91, 2001] model of political transitions to show how the anticipation of new loans from international financial institutions can trigger political transitions which would not otherwise have taken place. We test this unexplored implication of the theory empirically. We find that the anticipation of receiving new loan programs immediately after a political regime transition increases the probability of a transition from autocracy to democracy and reduces the probability of democratic survival.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Mar 31, 2018
Journal Journal of Comparative Economics
Print ISSN 0147-5967
Electronic ISSN 0147-5967
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 46
Issue 1
APA6 Citation Aidt, T. S., Albornoz, F., & Gassebner, M. (2018). The golden hello and political transitions. Journal of Comparative Economics, 46(1), doi:10.1016/j.jce.2017.03.004
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2017.03.004
Keywords Political transitions; Democracy; Autocracy; IMF; World bank
Publisher URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0147596717300276
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingh.../end_user_agreement.pdf

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Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/end_user_agreement.pdf





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