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Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

Authors

Katja Frieler

Stefan Lange

Franziska Piontek

Christopher P.O. Reyer

Jacob Schewe

Lila Warszawski

Fang Zhao

Louise Chini

Sebastien Denvil

Kerry Emanuel

Tobias Geiger

Kate Halladay

George Hurtt

Matthias Mengel

Daisuke Murakami

Sebastian Ostberg

Alexander Popp

Riccardo Riva

Miodrag Stevanovic

Tatsuo Suzuki

Jan Volkholz

Eleanor Burke

Philippe Ciais

Kristie Ebi

Tyler D. Eddy

Joshua Elliott

Eric Galbraith

Simon N. Gosling

Fred Hattermann

Thomas Hickler

Jochen Hinkel

Christian Hof

Veronika Huber

Jonas Jägermeyr

Valentina Krysanova

Rafael Marcé

Hannes Müller Schmied

Ioanna Mouratiadou

Don Pierson

Derek P. Tittensor

Robert Vautard

Michelle van Vliet

Matthias F. Biber

Richard A. Betts

Benjamin Leon Bodirsky

Delphine Deryng

Steve Frolking

Chris D. Jones

Heike K. Lotze

Hermann Lotze-Campen

Ritvik Sahajpal

Kirsten Thonicke

Hanqin Tian

Yoshiki Yamagata



Abstract

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Nov 30, 2017
Journal Geoscientific Model Development
Print ISSN 1991-959X
Electronic ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher European Geosciences Union
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 10
Issue 12
APA6 Citation Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., …Yamagata, Y. (2017). Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geoscientific Model Development, 10(12), doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017
DOI https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017
Publisher URL https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/4321/2017/
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

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Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0





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