Using reliability analysis to support decision making in phased mission systems

Zhang, Yang; Prescott, Darren

Abstract

Due to the environments in which they will operate, future autonomous systems must be capable of reconfiguring quickly and safely following faults or environmental changes. Past research has shown how, by considering autonomous systems to perform phased missions, reliability analysis can support decision making by allowing comparison of the probability of success of different missions following reconfiguration. Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) offer fast, accurate reliability analysis that could contribute to real-time decision making. However, phased mission analysis using existing BDD models is too slow to contribute to the instant decisions needed in time-critical situations. This paper investigates two aspects of BDD models that affect analysis speed: variable ordering and quantification efficiency. Variable ordering affects BDD size, which directly affects analysis speed. Here, a new ordering scheme is proposed for use in the context of a decision making process. Variables are ordered before a mission and reordering is unnecessary no matter how the mission configuration changes. Three BDD models are proposed to address the efficiency and accuracy of existing models. The advantages of the developed ordering scheme and BDD models are demonstrated in the context of their application within a reliability analysis methodology used to support decision making in an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle.

Citation

Zhang, Y., & Prescott, D. (2017). Using reliability analysis to support decision making in phased mission systems. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 33(8), 2105-2119. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.2170

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 3, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Jun 13, 2017
• Publication Date: Nov 28, 2017
• Deposit Date: May 22, 2017
• Publicly Available Date: Jun 13, 2017
• Journal: Quality and Reliability Engineering International
• Print ISSN: 0748-8017
• Electronic ISSN: 1099-1638
• Publisher: Wiley
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 33
• Issue: 8
• Pages: 2105-2119
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.2170
• Keywords: Decision Support, Reliability analysis, Binary Decision Diagrams, Variable ordering, Phased mission
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/896922
• Publisher URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qre.2170/full
• Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Zhang Y, Prescott D. Using reliability analysis to support decision making in phased mission systems. Qual Reliab Engng Int. 2017;33:2105–2119. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.2170 which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qre.2170/full This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
• Contract Date: May 22, 2017