Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; D�ll, P.; Gosling, Simon N.; Liu, J.; Masaki, Y.; Oki, T.; Ostberg, S.; Pokhrel, Y.; Satoh, Y.; Kim, H.; Ward, P. J.

Abstract

Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971–2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4–16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4–15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI.

Citation

Veldkamp, T., Wada, Y., Aerts, J., Döll, P., Gosling, S. N., Liu, J., Masaki, Y., Oki, T., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Kim, H., & Ward, P. J. (in press). Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century. Nature Communications, 8, Article 15697. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15697

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 20, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Jun 15, 2017
• Deposit Date: Jun 15, 2017
• Publicly Available Date: Jun 15, 2017
• Journal: Nature Communications
• Electronic ISSN: 2041-1723
• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 8
• Article Number: 15697
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15697
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/866222
• Publisher URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15697
• Contract Date: Jun 15, 2017