Reduction of Petri net maintenance modeling complexity via Approximate Bayesian Computation

Chiachío, Manuel; Saleh, Ali; Naybour, Susannah; Chiachío, Juan; Andrews, John

Abstract

The accurate modeling of engineering systems and processes using Petri nets often results in complex graph representations that are computationally intensive, limiting the potential of this modeling tool in real life applications. This paper presents a methodology to properly define the optimal structure and properties of a reduced Petri net that mimic the output of a reference Petri net model. The methodology is based on Approximate Bayesian Computation to infer the plausible values of the model parameters of the reduced model in a rigorous probabilistic way. Also, the method provides a numerical measure of the level of approximation of the reduced model structure, thus allowing the selection of the optimal reduced structure among a set of potential candidates. The suitability of the proposed methodology is illustrated using a simple illustrative example and a system reliability engineering case study, showing satisfactory results. The results also show that the method allows flexible reduction of the structure of the complex Petri net model taken as reference, and provides numerical justification for the choice of the reduced model structure.

Citation

Chiachío, M., Saleh, A., Naybour, S., Chiachío, J., & Andrews, J. (2022). Reduction of Petri net maintenance modeling complexity via Approximate Bayesian Computation. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 222, Article 108365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108365

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 30, 2022
• Online Publication Date: Feb 19, 2022
• Publication Date: Jun 1, 2022
• Deposit Date: Feb 25, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Feb 25, 2022
• Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety
• Print ISSN: 0951-8320
• Electronic ISSN: 1879-0836
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 222
• Article Number: 108365
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108365
• Keywords: Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering; Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/7474427
• Publisher URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832022000436