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A refined limit on the predictability of human mobility

Smith, Gavin; Wieser, Romain; Goulding, James; Barrack, Duncan

Authors

Gavin Smith

Romain Wieser

James Goulding

Duncan Barrack



Abstract

It has been recently claimed that human movement is highly predictable. While an upper bound of 93% predictability was shown, this was based upon human movement trajectories of very high spatiotemporal granularity. Recent studies reduced this spatiotemporal granularity down to the level of GPS data, and under a similar methodology results once again suggested a high predictability upper bound (i.e. 90% when movement was quantized down to a spatial resolution approximately the size of a large building). In this work we reconsider the derivation of the upper bound to movement predictability. By considering real-world topological constraints we are able to achieve a tighter upper bound, representing a more refined limit to the predictability of human movement. Our results show that this upper bound is between 11-24% less than previously claimed at a spatial resolution of approx. 100m_100m, with a greater improvement for finer spatial resolutions. This indicates that human mobility is potentially less predictable than previously thought. We provide an in-depth examination of how varying the spatial and temporal quantization affects predictability, and consider the impact of corresponding limits using a large set of real-world GPS traces. Particularly at fine-grained spatial quantizations where a significant number of practical applications lie, these new (lower) upper limits raise serious questions about the use of location information alone for prediction, contributing more evidence that such prediction must integrate external variables.

Publication Date Mar 24, 2014
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Book Title 2014 IEEE International Conference on Pervasive Computing and Communications (PerCom)
APA6 Citation Smith, G., Wieser, R., Goulding, J., & Barrack, D. (2014). A refined limit on the predictability of human mobility. In 2014 IEEE International Conference on Pervasive Computing and Communications (PerCom)doi:10.1109/PerCom.2014.6813948
DOI https://doi.org/10.1109/PerCom.2014.6813948
Keywords Global Positioning System; XML; Logic gates
Publisher URL https://doi.org/10.1109/PerCom.2014.6813948
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingh.../end_user_agreement.pdf
Additional Information © 2014 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works. Published in the Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Pervasive Computing and Communications (PERCOM 2014)9781479934454.

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Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/end_user_agreement.pdf





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