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The inverse forecast effect

Clarke, David; Blake, Holly

Authors

David Clarke

Holly Blake

Abstract

Social behaviour depends crucially on the way events are linked over time, and on how these linkages are perceived. From a given event, people may be able to infer what followed, or what preceded it. However these two tasks are not as similar as they may seem. Two experiments are reported in which participants had to infer subsequent events given earlier ones, or else the reverse. Performance was consistently more accurate when working ‘backwards’. We call this the ‘inverse forecast effect’. It raises issues about the strategies people use to predict and understand everyday events, and about just how the future is formed from the past.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Dec 14, 1997
Journal Journal of Social Behaviour and Personality
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 12
Issue 4
Institution Citation Clarke, D., & Blake, H. (1997). The inverse forecast effect
Keywords Prediction, Forecast, Sequence, Judgement, Hindsight, Scripts
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingh.../end_user_agreement.pdf

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1997 Clarke Blake JSBP_Inverse forecast.pdf (184 Kb)
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Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/end_user_agreement.pdf




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