Drivers of future urban flood risk

O'Donnell, Emily C.; Thorne, Colin R.

Abstract

Managing urban flood risk is a key global challenge of the 21st Century. Drivers of future UK flood risk were identified and assessed by the Flood Foresight project in 2002-04 and 2008; envisaging flood risk during the 2050s and 2080s under a range of scenarios for climate change and socio-economic development. This paper qualitatively reassesses and updates these drivers, using empirical evidence and advances in flood risk science, technology and practice gained since 2008. Of the original drivers, five have strengthened, three have weakened and 14 remain within their 2008 uncertainty bands. Rainfall, as impacted by climate change, is the leading source driver of future urban flood risk. Intra-urban Asset Deterioration, leading to increases in a range of consequential flood risks, is the primary pathway driver. Social impacts (risk to life and health, and the intangible impacts of flooding on communities) and continued capital investment in Buildings and Contents (leading to greater losses when newer buildings of higher economic worth are inundated), have strengthened as receptor drivers of urban flood risk. Further, we propose two new drivers: Loss of Floodable Urban Spaces, and Indirect Economic Impacts, which we suggest may have significant impacts on future urban flood risk.

Citation

O'Donnell, E. C., & Thorne, C. R. (2020). Drivers of future urban flood risk. Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 378(2168), https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0216

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Nov 15, 2019
• Online Publication Date: Feb 17, 2020
• Publication Date: Apr 3, 2020
• Deposit Date: Jan 22, 2020
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 23, 2020
• Journal: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
• Print ISSN: 1364-503X
• Electronic ISSN: 1471-2962
• Publisher: The Royal Society
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 378
• Issue: 2168
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0216
• Keywords: General Engineering; General Physics and Astronomy; General Mathematics
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/3694712
• Publisher URL: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2019.0216
• Additional Information: Accepted: 2019-11-15; Published: 2020-02-17