Intelligence warning in the Ukraine war, Autumn 2021–Summer 2022

Gustafson, Kristian; Lomas, Daniel; Wagner, Steven

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is a unique case study of the use of warning intelligence. The article shows that whilst Russia’s invasion has sparked a wave of interest on aspects of intelligence, including the use of open source and ‘prebuttal’, the fundamentals of warning intelligence – the forewarning of major threats in a timely manner so policymakers and officials can respond - remain the same as they have always have. The article also suggests that whilst both sides of the conflict had intelligence advantages at the start, intelligence only becomes a significant force multiplier if the consumer sees value in it and uses it. For Russia, significant intelligence advantages were not fully exploited with the effect that they lost the initiative. Ukraine, whilst initially taken by surprise at the tactical and operational level, was able to use intelligence to its advantage. This, we argue, had long lasting implications for the course of the first period of the conflict.

Citation

Gustafson, K., Lomas, D., & Wagner, S. (2024). Intelligence warning in the Ukraine war, Autumn 2021–Summer 2022. Intelligence and National Security, 39(3), https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2024.2322214

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Feb 19, 2024
• Online Publication Date: Mar 10, 2024
• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2024
• Deposit Date: Feb 22, 2024
• Publicly Available Date: Sep 11, 2025
• Journal: Intelligence and National Security
• Print ISSN: 0268-4527
• Electronic ISSN: 1743-9019
• Publisher: Routledge
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 39
• Issue: 3
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2024.2322214
• Keywords: Ukraine, intelligence, warning, Russia, assessment
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/31612810
• Publisher URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2024.2322214
• Additional Information: Peer Review Statement: The publishing and review policy for this title is described in its Aims & Scope.; Aim & Scope: http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?show=aimsScope&journalCode=fint20; Received: 2024-02-01; Accepted: 2024-02-19; Published: 2024-03-10