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The Dynamic and Dependent Tree Theory (D2T2 ) methodology Developed for Fault Tree Analysis

Andrews, John; Tolo, Silvia

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Authors

JOHN ANDREWS john.andrews@nottingham.ac.uk
Professor of Infrastructure Asset Management

SILVIA TOLO SILVIA.TOLO@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
Research Fellowship



Abstract

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) has its origins back in the 1960’s with the mathematical framework, known as Kinetic Tree Theory (KTT) added at the end of the decade by Vesely. In KTT the analysis of the fault tree is performed in two stages. The first stage performs a qualitative analysis producing minimal cut sets. The second, quantitative stage, then calculates the system failure mode probability or frequency, along with importance rankings to identify the most significant contributors to the system failure mode. To perform the analysis using KTT requires assumptions to be made about the component failure events such as the independence of all basic events. Also, in most commercial packages, the models employed to evaluate the component failure probabilities assume constant failure and repair rates with limited means of representing the, often complex, asset management strategies employed. These restrictions limit the ability of FTA to represent modern engineering system performance.

This paper describes the D 2 T 2 framework which enables Dynamic and Dependent Fault Tree analysis overcoming all of the limitations described above by integrating the capabilities of Binary Decision Diagram, Petri net and Markov modelling methodologies.

Citation

Andrews, J., & Tolo, S. (2023, April). The Dynamic and Dependent Tree Theory (D2T2 ) methodology Developed for Fault Tree Analysis. Presented at 62nd ESReDA Seminar, University of Twente, the Netherlands

Presentation Conference Type Other
Conference Name 62nd ESReDA Seminar
Start Date Apr 12, 2023
End Date Apr 13, 2023
Deposit Date May 15, 2023
Publicly Available Date May 15, 2023
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/20819424
Related Public URLs https://www.esreda.org/event/62nd-esreda-seminar-april-12th-13rd-2023-university-of-twente-the-netherlands-2/

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