Uncertainty analysis of life cycle assessment of asphalt surfacings

Abed, Ahmed; Godoi Bizarro, Diana Eliza; Neves, Luis; Parry, Tony; Keijzer, Elisabeth; Kalman, Bjorn; Jimenez Del Barco Carrion, Ana; Mantalovas, Konstantinos; Buttitta, Gabriella; Lo Presti, Davide; Airey, Gordon

Abstract

The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of asphalt pavements are associated with significant uncertainty resulting from variability in the quantity and impact of individual components, the quality of data for each component, and variability of asphalt durability. This study presents a framework to quantify and incorporate the uncertainty of LCA and asphalt durability data into LCA of asphalt surfacings. The suggested framework includes: estimating the uncertainty of asphalt production processes by the pedigree matrix method, conducting a deterministic LCA, applying Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to estimate the probability density functions (PDFs) of the considered impacts using the uncertainty data, deterministic solution, and asphalt durability. This framework was applied to six asphalt mixtures; the results show that there is significant uncertainty in the processes that contribute to the environmental impacts. They also showed that considering asphalt durability and its uncertainty is critical and can significantly change the results and interpretation of LCA.

Citation

Abed, A., Godoi Bizarro, D. E., Neves, L., Parry, T., Keijzer, E., Kalman, B., Jimenez Del Barco Carrion, A., Mantalovas, K., Buttitta, G., Lo Presti, D., & Airey, G. (2023). Uncertainty analysis of life cycle assessment of asphalt surfacings. Road Materials and Pavement Design, 25(2), 219-238. https://doi.org/10.1080/14680629.2023.2199882

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 1, 2023
• Online Publication Date: Apr 21, 2023
• Publication Date: Apr 21, 2023
• Deposit Date: Jun 30, 2023
• Publicly Available Date: Apr 22, 2024
• Journal: Road Materials and Pavement Design
• Print ISSN: 1468-0629
• Electronic ISSN: 2164-7402
• Publisher: Taylor and Francis
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 25
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 219-238
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14680629.2023.2199882
• Keywords: Life cycle assessment; asphalt; uncertainty; durability; Monte Carlo simulation
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/20554915
• Publisher URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14680629.2023.2199882?journalCode=trmp20
• Additional Information: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Road Materials and Pavement Design on 21/04/2023, available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/14680629.2023.2199882