Likelihood-Free Dynamical Survival Analysis applied to the COVID-19 epidemic in Ohio

Klaus, Colin; Wascher, Matthew; KhudaBukhsh, Wasiur R.; Rempała, Grzegorz A.

Abstract

The Dynamical Survival Analysis (DSA) is a framework for modeling epidemics based on mean field dynamics applied to individual (agent) level history of infection and recovery. Recently, the DSA method has been shown to be an effective tool in analyzing complex non-Markovian epidemic processes that are otherwise difficult to handle using standard methods. One of the advantages of DSA is its representation of typical epidemic data in a simple although not explicit form that involves solutions of certain differential equations. In this work we describe how a complex non-Markovian DSA model may be applied to a specific data set with the help of appropriate numerical and statistical schemes. The ideas are illustrated with a data example of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ohio.

Citation

Klaus, C., Wascher, M., KhudaBukhsh, W. R., & Rempała, G. A. (2023). Likelihood-Free Dynamical Survival Analysis applied to the COVID-19 epidemic in Ohio. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 20(2), 4103-4127. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023192

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Dec 12, 2022
• Online Publication Date: Dec 20, 2022
• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2023
• Deposit Date: Dec 23, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 9, 2023
• Journal: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
• Print ISSN: 1547-1063
• Electronic ISSN: 1551-0018
• Publisher: American Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 20
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 4103-4127
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023192
• Keywords: Applied Mathematics; Computational Mathematics; General Agricultural and Biological Sciences; Modeling and Simulation; General Medicine; SIR epidemics; vaccination; PDE system; Nonlocal PDE; Nonlocal conservation laws; ABC method; Statistical inference; Numerical solution
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/15169540
• Publisher URL: http://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2023192