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Bayes Factors for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemic Models

Alharthi, Muteb; Kypraios, Theodore; O'Neill, Philip D.

Authors

Muteb Alharthi

PHILIP O'NEILL philip.oneill@nottingham.ac.uk
Professor of Applied Probability



Abstract

We consider the problem of model choice for stochastic epidemic models given partial observation of a disease outbreak through time. Our main focus is on the use of Bayes factors. Although Bayes factors have appeared in the epidemic modelling literature before, they can be hard to compute and little attention has been given to fundamental questions concerning their utility. In this paper we derive analytic expressions for Bayes factors given complete observation through time, which suggest practical guidelines for model choice problems. We adapt the power posterior method for computing Bayes factors so as to account for missing data and apply this approach to partially observed epidemics. For comparison, we
also explore the use of a deviance information criterion for missing data scenarios. The methods are illustrated via examples involving both simulated and real data.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date 2019-09
Journal Bayesian Analysis
Print ISSN 1936-0975
Electronic ISSN 1931-6690
Publisher International Society for Bayesian Analysis
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 14
Issue 3
Pages 927-956
APA6 Citation Alharthi, M., Kypraios, T., & O'Neill, P. D. (2019). Bayes Factors for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemic Models. Bayesian Analysis, 14(3), 927-956. https://doi.org/10.1214/18-BA1134
DOI https://doi.org/10.1214/18-BA1134
Keywords Bayes factor; power posterior; stochastic epidemic model
Publisher URL https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba/1543978839

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