A Petri Net approach to the Risk Analysis of Jet Engines

Tolo, Silvia; Andrews, John; Thatcher, Ian; Stamp, David

Abstract

Traditional risk analysis techniques such as Fault Trees and Event Trees fail to model complex aspects of systems behaviour such as components dependencies, degradation, limiting their capability of representing modern engineering systems. This is all the more true for aviation systems, whose safety and operation strongly rely on automation and control technology, often resulting in dense networks of dependencies and hence in a high degree of complexity. Moreover, due to their safety critical nature as well as intensive operation conditions, maintenance is a crucial aspect of these systems life-cycle, introducing further sources of dependency or failure. Failing to take into account these aspects may result in the misrepresentation of the systems behaviour, potentially leading to the underestimation of risk. The current study provides an alternative solution for the safety analysis of the air system of a jet engine based on the use of Petri Nets. The model implemented covers the time interval between major engine overhauls, taking into account both in-flight operation and on-wing maintenance, as well as their reciprocal influence. Components degradation as well as dependencies and common cause failures are also included in the analysis, in order to offer a realistic representation of the system behaviour.

Citation

Tolo, S., Andrews, J., Thatcher, I., & Stamp, D. (2022). A Petri Net approach to the Risk Analysis of Jet Engines. In M. Chiara Leva, E. Patelli, L. Podofillini, & S. Wilson (Eds.), Book of Extended Abstracts for the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (137-138)

• Presentation Conference Type: Conference Paper (Published)
• Conference Name: 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022)
• Start Date: Aug 28, 2022
• End Date: Sep 1, 2022
• Acceptance Date: Jun 24, 2022
• Online Publication Date: Sep 2, 2022
• Publication Date: Sep 2, 2022
• Deposit Date: Sep 8, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Sep 8, 2022
• Pages: 137-138
• Book Title: Book of Extended Abstracts for the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference
• ISBN: 9789811851834
• Keywords: Fault Trees; Safety Analysis; Component Dependency; Degradation; Markov Models; Petri Nets
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/10916629
• Related Public URLs: https://rpsonline.com.sg/rps2prod/esrel22-epro/ESREL22-Book-Extended-Abstracts.pdf; ; https://easychair.org/smart-program/ESREL2022/2022-08-31.html#talk:200190
• Additional Information: Published paper called A Petri Net approach to the Risk Analysis of Jet Engines.; Paper presented at the conference called Predicting the Risk of Jet Engine Failure using Petri Nets,