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Fault Tree analysis including component dependencies

Tolo, Silvia; Andrews, John

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Authors

SILVIA TOLO SILVIA.TOLO@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
Research Fellowship

JOHN ANDREWS john.andrews@nottingham.ac.uk
Professor of Infrastructure Asset Management



Contributors

Maria Chiara Leva
Editor

Edoardo Patelli
Editor

Luca Podofillini
Editor

Simon Wilson
Editor

Abstract

The inability of commonly used risk assessment methodologies to model component dependency is often recognised to be a barrier towards more realistic modelling of systems complexity. This is a significant limitation associated with widely adopted techniques such as Fault and Event Trees (FT/ET), which rely on the often unjustified assumption of stochastic independence among systems' components. The research presented provides mathematical solutions able to tackle the two main challenges associated with the modelling of dependency in reliability and safety system analysis: on the one hand, the achievement of adequate flexibility for representing realistically a wide variety of system settings and interrelations; on the other, the computational feasibility of the methodology, still retaining the familiarity of commonly used approaches (i.e. FT/ET). The proposed methodology relies on the use of Binary Decision Diagrams as well as on the manipulation of joint probabilities according to Bayes' theorem. The technique is demonstrated using a simple numerical application for verification.

Citation

Tolo, S., & Andrews, J. (2022). Fault Tree analysis including component dependencies. In M. C. Leva, E. Patelli, L. Podofillini, & S. Wilson (Eds.), Book of Extended Abstracts for the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (133-134). https://doi.org/10.1109/TR.2023.3264943

Conference Name 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022)
Conference Location Dublin, Ireland
Start Date Aug 28, 2022
End Date Sep 1, 2022
Acceptance Date Jun 24, 2022
Online Publication Date Sep 2, 2022
Publication Date Sep 2, 2022
Deposit Date Sep 8, 2022
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Publisher Research Publishing
Pages 133-134
Book Title Book of Extended Abstracts for the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference
ISBN 97898118511834
DOI https://doi.org/10.1109/TR.2023.3264943
Keywords Fault Trees; Safety Analysis; Component Dependency; Degradation; Markov Models; Petri Nets
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/10916495
Related Public URLs https://rpsonline.com.sg/rps2prod/esrel22-epro/ESREL22-Book-Extended-Abstracts.pdf

https://easychair.org/smart-program/ESREL2022/2022-08-31.html#talk:199776
Additional Information Abstract of paper given at the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022), 28 August -1 September 2022, Dublin, Ireland

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