An Integrated Modelling Framework for Complex Systems Safety Analysis: Case-Studies

Tolo, Silvia; Andrews, John

Abstract

The ever-increasing complexity of engineering systems has fuelled the need for novel and efficient computational tools able to enhance the accuracy of current modelling strategies for industrial systems. Indeed, traditional Fault and Event Tree techniques still monopolize the reliability analysis of complex systems despite their limitations, such as the inability to capture component dependencies or to include degradation processes and complex maintenance strategies into the analysis. The current study investigates the application of a novel modelling framework for safety system performance which retains the capabilities of both Fault and Event Tree methods, but also overcomes their limitations through the circumscribed use of more exhaustive modelling techniques, such as Petri Nets and Markov Models. Five case-studies focusing on a simplified industrial plant cooling system are analysed: these cover a range of component dependency types and system settings which cannot be fully represented through the use of conventional fault and event trees.

Citation

Tolo, S., & Andrews, J. (2022). An Integrated Modelling Framework for Complex Systems Safety Analysis: Case-Studies. In M. C. Leva, E. Patelli, L. Podofillini, & S. Wilson (Eds.), Book of Extended Abstracts for the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (135-136)

• Conference Name: 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022)
• Conference Location: Dublin, Ireland
• Start Date: Aug 28, 2022
• End Date: Sep 1, 2022
• Acceptance Date: Jun 24, 2022
• Online Publication Date: Sep 2, 2022
• Publication Date: Sep 2, 2022
• Deposit Date: Sep 8, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Sep 8, 2022
• Pages: 135-136
• Book Title: Book of Extended Abstracts for the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference
• ISBN: 97898118511834
• Keywords: Fault Trees; Safety Analysis; Component Dependency; Degradation; Markov Models; Petri Nets
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/10916243
• Related Public URLs: https://rpsonline.com.sg/rps2prod/esrel22-epro/ESREL22-Book-Extended-Abstracts.pdf; ; https://easychair.org/smart-program/ESREL2022/2022-08-31.html#talk:199776
• Additional Information: Abstract of paper given at the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022), 28 August -1 September 2022, Dublin, Ireland