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Ideal point error for model assessment in data-driven river flow forecasting

Dawson, C.W; Mount, Nick J.; Abrahart, R.J; Shamseldin, A.Y.

Authors

C.W Dawson c.w.dawson1@lboro.ac.uk

Nick J. Mount nick.mount@nottingham.ac.uk

R.J Abrahart bob.abrahart@nottingham.ac.uk

A.Y. Shamseldin a.shamseldin@auckland.ac.nz



Abstract

When analysing the performance of hydrological
models in river forecasting, researchers use a number of diverse statistics. Although some statistics appear to be used more regularly in such analyses than others, there is a distinct lack of consistency in evaluation, making studies undertaken by different authors or performed at different locations difficult to compare in a meaningful manner. Moreover, even within individual reported case studies, substantial contradictions
are found to occur between one measure of performance
and another. In this paper we examine the ideal
point error (IPE) metric – a recently introduced measure of
model performance that integrates a number of recognised
metrics in a logical way. Having a single, integrated measure of performance is appealing as it should permit more straightforward model inter-comparisons. However, this is reliant on a transferrable standardisation of the individual metrics that are combined to form the IPE. This paper examines one potential option for standardisation: the use of naive model benchmarking.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Jan 1, 2012
Journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Print ISSN 1027-5606
Electronic ISSN 1027-5606
Publisher European Geosciences Union
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 16
Issue 8
APA6 Citation Dawson, C., Mount, N. J., Abrahart, R., & Shamseldin, A. (2012). Ideal point error for model assessment in data-driven river flow forecasting. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(8), doi:10.5194/hess-16-3049-2012
DOI https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3049-2012
Publisher URL http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/3049/2012/hess-16-3049-2012.html
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

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Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0





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