An analysis of the spatial evolution and influencing factors of rural settlements along the Shandong section of the Grand Canal of China

Huo, Xiaolong; Xu, Xiwei; Tang, Yue; Zhang, Zhen

Abstract

Since 1980s, the weakening of the transportation function of the Grand Canal and rapid urbanisation have generated significant changes in the spatial pattern of rural settlements along the Grand Canal. Analysing the changing characteristics of this spatial pattern, and exploring the natural, social, and economic factors influencing these changes are key to understanding the regional spatial structure and development law, and grasping the degree of influence of these factors. This study selected approximately 13,000 rural settlements in 27 county-level units in the Shandong section of the Grand Canal, from 1980 to 2018, as the research object. The Grand Canal's distance buffer zone is divided into canal-side, near-canal, far-canal, and further-canal settlements. The correlation model with the canal is constructed through the controlled experiment. The distribution, scale, and form of the settlement are analysed quantitatively by applying the change of gravity centre model (CGC), average nearest neighbour analysis (ANN), landscape metrics (LM), and other methods. The quantitative analysis of geographic detectors in spatial pattern differentiation factors shows the relative importance and interaction within them. This study indicates that the spatial distribution shows ‘large dispersion and small concentration’ and ‘small-scale agglomeration’ characteristics. The larger the scale of the settlement expands, the more the number of settlements decreases. The closer the settlement nears the river, the more complex the shape clusters. The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, the total power of agricultural machinery, and the effective irrigation area are the main influencing factors. The grain area and the per capita disposable income of rural residents are the main auxiliary influencing factors.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Sep 13, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Oct 20, 2021
• Publication Date: 2023-09
• Deposit Date: Sep 29, 2021
• Publicly Available Date: Oct 21, 2022
• Journal: River Research and Applications
• Print ISSN: 1535-1459
• Electronic ISSN: 1535-1467
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 39
• Issue: 7
• Pages: 1283-1299
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3874
• Keywords: rural settlements; spatial evolution; impact factors; quantitative methods; Shandong section of the Grand Canal
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/6346509
• Publisher URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rra.3874
• Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Huo, X., XU, X., TANG, Y., & Zhang, Z. (2021). An analysis of the Spatial Evolution and Influencing Factors of Rural Settlements along the Shandong Section of the Grand Canal of China River Research and Applications. River Research and Applications, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3874. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.