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Probabilistic prediction of asphalt pavement performance

Abed, Ahmed; Thom, Nick; Neves, Luis


Ahmed Abed

Assistant Professor


Variability of pavement design parameters has always been a concern to pavement designers and highway agencies. A robust pavement design should take into account the variability of the design inputs and its impact on the reliability of the design. In this study, the variability effect of thickness and stiffness of pavement layers was investigated. The variability of these parameters was described by their mean values, standard deviations and probability distribution functions. Monte Carlo Simulation method was utilised to incorporate variability of the design parameters and to construct the probability distribution function of the outputs. KENLAYER software was used to calculate pavement response at predetermined critical locations; pavement reponse was then used to predict pavement performance regarding permanent deformation, bottom-up and top-down fatigue cracking by using the mechanistic empirical pavement design guide (MEPDG) models. A Matlab code was developed to run that analysis and obtain the probability distribution function of pavement performance indicators over time. It was found that the variability of pavement layer thickness and stiffness has a significant impact on pavement performance. Also, it was found that not only the mean of the predicted performance indicators is increasing over time, but the variance of these indicators is also increasing. This means that pavement condition cannot be described by the mean values of the indicators but by the probability distribution function which can describe pavement condition at any reliability level.


Abed, A., Thom, N., & Neves, L. (2019). Probabilistic prediction of asphalt pavement performance. Road Materials and Pavement Design, 20( Sup 1), S247-S264.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Feb 20, 2019
Online Publication Date Mar 21, 2019
Publication Date Mar 21, 2019
Deposit Date May 1, 2019
Publicly Available Date Mar 22, 2020
Journal Road Materials and Pavement Design
Print ISSN 1468-0629
Electronic ISSN 2164-7402
Publisher Taylor & Francis Open
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 20
Issue Sup 1
Pages S247-S264
Keywords Civil and structural engineering
Public URL
Publisher URL
Additional Information This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Road Materials and Pavment Design on 21.03.2019, available online:


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