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Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis

Bleaney, Michael; Tian, Mo

Authors

Michael Bleaney

MO TIAN Mo.Tian@nottingham.ac.uk
Assistant Professor



Abstract

This study assesses the response of the trade balance to exchange rate fluctuations across a large number of countries. Fixed-effects regressions are estimated for three country groups (industrial, developing and emerging markets) on annual data for 87 countries from 1994 to 2010. The trade balance improves significantly after a real depreciation, and to a similar degree, in the long run for all countries, but the adjustment is significantly slower for industrial countries. Emerging markets and developing countries display relatively fast adjustment. Disaggregation into exports and imports shows that the delayed adjustment in industrial countries is almost entirely on the export side. The rate of adjustment in emerging markets is slowing over time, consistent with their eventual graduation to high-income status. The ratio of trade to GDP is also highly sensitive to the real effective exchange rate, with a real depreciation of 10 % raising the trade/GDP ratio across the sample by approximately 4 %. This result, which presumably reflects movements in the prices of tradables relative to non-tradables, raises questions about the widespread use of the trade/GDP ratio as a trade policy indicator, without adjustment for real exchange rate effects.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date 2014-09
Journal Open Economies Review
Print ISSN 0923-7992
Electronic ISSN 1573-708X
Publisher Springer Verlag
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 25
Issue 4
Pages 655-675
APA6 Citation Bleaney, M., & Tian, M. (2014). Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis. Open Economies Review, 25(4), 655-675. doi:10.1007/s11079-014-9310-3
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-014-9310-3
Keywords Exchange rate, Trade balance, Exports, Imports, Terms of trade
Publisher URL https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11079-014-9310-3
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