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Professor SIMON GOSLING's Outputs (97)

Towards the use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir storage in global hydrological models: methodology and pilot study in the CONUS (2025)
Journal Article
Otta, K., Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., & Hanasaki, N. (2025). Towards the use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir storage in global hydrological models: methodology and pilot study in the CONUS. Environmental Research: Water, 1(1), Article 015002. https://doi.org/10.1088/3033-4942/adc47b

Although river discharge simulations from global hydrological models (GHMs) have undergone extensive validation, there has been less validation of reservoir operations, primarily because of limited observational data. Recent advancements in satellite... Read More about Towards the use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir storage in global hydrological models: methodology and pilot study in the CONUS.

Graphical representation of global water models (2025)
Journal Article
Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., Garnsworthy, M., Müller, L., Telteu, C.-E., Kainan Ahmed, A., Seaby Andersen, L., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Chang, J., Chen, H., Gudmundsson, L., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Kumar, R., Leng, G., Liu, J., Liu, X., …Yokohata, T. (in press). Graphical representation of global water models. Geoscientific Model Development,

Benefits of Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model for Regional Analyses of Flood and Drought Projections: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin (2025)
Journal Article
Zhao, F., Nie, N., Liu, Y., Yi, C., Guillaumot, L., Wada, Y., Burek, P., Smilovic, M., Frieler, K., Buechner, M., Schewe, J., & Gosling, S. N. (2025). Benefits of Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model for Regional Analyses of Flood and Drought Projections: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin. Water Resources Research, 61(3), Article e2024WR037153. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037153

Uncalibrated global hydrological models are primarily used to inform projections of flood and drought changes under global warming and their impacts, but it remains unclear how model calibration might benefit these projections. Using the Yangtze Rive... Read More about Benefits of Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model for Regional Analyses of Flood and Drought Projections: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin.

The future of decent work: Forecasting heat stress and the intersection of sustainable development challenges in India's brick kilns (2024)
Journal Article
Boyd, D. S., Jackson, B., Sparks, J. D., Foody, G. M., Girindran, R., Gosling, S., Trodd, Z., Bhriain, L. H., & Rodriguez-Huerta, E. (2024). The future of decent work: Forecasting heat stress and the intersection of sustainable development challenges in India's brick kilns. Sustainable Development, https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3272

The impacts of climate change-induced heat stress on workers are most prevalent in sectors with decent work deficits and this requires consideration for sustainable development. This paper focuses on the informal economy of brick kilns in India, a se... Read More about The future of decent work: Forecasting heat stress and the intersection of sustainable development challenges in India's brick kilns.

Heat stress and the labour force (2024)
Journal Article
Dasgupta, S., Robinson, E. J. Z., Shayegh, S., Bosello, F., Park, R. J., & Gosling, S. N. (2024). Heat stress and the labour force. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 5, 859-872. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00606-1

Heat stress affects the health of workers through physiological and behavioural responses, in turn, affecting the labour force through impacts on labour supply, labour productivity and labour capacity. In this Review, we explore the extent to which h... Read More about Heat stress and the labour force.

Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity (2024)
Journal Article
Liu, J., Li, D., Chen, H., Wang, H., Wada, Y., Gosling, S. N., Yang, H., Pokhrel, Y., & Ciais, P. (2024). Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity. Nature Communications, 15, Article 7129. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51302-z

Alleviating water scarcity is at the core of Sustainable Development Goal 6. Yet the timing of water scarcity in its onset and possible relief in different regions of the world due to climate change and changing human population dynamics remains poor... Read More about Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity.

Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia (2024)
Journal Article
Baigaliyeva, M., Mount, N., Gosling, S. N., & McGowan, S. (2024). Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia. PLoS ONE, 19(7), Article e0305721. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0305721

Endorheic lakes, lacking river outflows, are highly sensitive to environmental changes and human interventions. Central Asia (CA) has over 6000 lakes that have experienced substantial water level variability in the past century, yet causes of recent... Read More about Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia.

Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge (2024)
Journal Article
Heinicke, S., Volkholz, J., Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Müller Schmied, H., Zimmermann, S., Mengel, M., Sauer, I. J., Burek, P., Chang, J., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A. G., Otta, K., Qi, W., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Yokohata, T., & Frieler, K. (2024). Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge. Environmental Research Letters, 19(7), Article 074005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad52b0

Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the 'model evaluation and impact attribution' part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model... Read More about Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge.

Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology (2024)
Journal Article
Smith, M. W., Willis, T., Mroz, E., James, W. H., Klaar, M. J., Gosling, S. N., & Thomas, C. J. (2024). Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology. Science, 384(6696), 697-703. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adk8755

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vect... Read More about Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology.

A survey of past and future changes in global river flow (2024)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Gudmundsson, L., Brunner, M., Döll, P., Fluet-Chouinard, E., Gosling, S. N., Hirabayashi, Y., Müller Schmied, H., Slater, L., Stein, L., Wasko, C., Yamazaki, D., & Zhou, X. (2024, April). A survey of past and future changes in global river flow. Presented at EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria & Online

The Water Quality Protocol for Model Intercomparisons Under Climate Change Impacts (2024)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Strokal, M., Micella, I., P. Bak, M., H. W. Beusen, A., Flörke, M., N. Gosling, S., Van Griensven, A., Grizzetti, B., Hofstra, N., R. Jones, E., Kroeze, C., Nkwasa, A., Troost, T., T.H. van Vliet, M., Wang, M., & Kumar, R. (2024, April). The Water Quality Protocol for Model Intercomparisons Under Climate Change Impacts. Presented at EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria & Online

The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa (2024)
Journal Article
Kunda, J. J., Gosling, S. N., & Foody, G. M. (2024). The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa. International Journal of Biometeorology, 68, 1015-1033. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02650-4

This review examines high-quality research evidence that synthesises the effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa. Web of Science (WoS) was used to identify research articles on the effects extreme heat, humidity, Wet-bulb Globe Tem... Read More about The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa.

Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change (2024)
Journal Article
Porkka, M., Virkki, V., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Gerten, D., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., Fetzer, I., Jaramillo, F., Staal, A., te Wierik, S., Wierik, S. T., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R., Döll, P., Flörke, M., Gosling, S. N., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Müller Schmied, H., Wanders, N., …Kummu, M. (2024). Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change. Nature Water, 2(3), 262-273. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7

Human actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Here, using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrol... Read More about Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change.

Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a) (2024)
Journal Article
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., del Rocío Rivas López, M., Otto, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Karger, D. N., Malle, J. T., Treu, S., Menz, C., Blanchard, J. L., Harrison, C. S., Petrik, C. M., Eddy, T. D., Ortega-Cisneros, K., Novaglio, C., Rousseau, Y., Watson, R. A., …Bechtold, M. (2024). Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Geoscientific Model Development, 17(1), 1-51. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set... Read More about Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a).

Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models (2023)
Journal Article
Gnann, S., Reinecke, R., Stein, L., Wada, Y., Thiery, W., Müller Schmied, H., Satoh, Y., Pokhrel, Y., Ostberg, S., Koutroulis, A., Hanasaki, N., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S. N., Burek, P., Bierkens, M. F. P., & Wagener, T. (2023). Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models. Nature Water, 1(12), 1079-1090. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00160-y

Global water models are increasingly used to understand past, present and future water cycles, but disagreements between simulated variables make model-based inferences uncertain. Although there is empirical evidence of different large-scale relation... Read More about Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models.

Use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir operations in global hydrological models: a case study from the CONUS (2023)
Journal Article
Otta, K., Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., & Hanasaki, N. (2023). Use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir operations in global hydrological models: a case study from the CONUS. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-215

Although river discharge simulations from global hydrological models have undergone extensive validation, there has been less validation of reservoir operations, primarily because of limited observational data. However, recent advancements in satelli... Read More about Use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir operations in global hydrological models: a case study from the CONUS.

Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a) (2023)
Preprint / Working Paper
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., Rivas López, M. D. R., Otto, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Karger, D. N., Malle, J. T., Treu, S., Menz, C., Blanchard, J. L., Harrison, C. S., Petrik, C. M., Eddy, T. D., Ortega-Cisneros, K., Novaglio, C., Rousseau, Y., Watson, R. A., …Bechtold, M. Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, www.isimip.org) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human... Read More about Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a).

Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models (2022)
Report
Gnann, S., Reinecke, R., Stein, L., Wada, Y., Thiery, W., Müller Schmid, H., Satoh, Y., Pokhrel, Y., Ostberg, S., Koutroulis, A., Hanasaki, N., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S. N., Burek, P., Bierkens, M. F. P., & Wagener, T. (2022). Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models

Global water models are widely used for policy-making and in scientific studies, but substantial inter-model differences highlight the need for additional evaluation. Here we evaluate global water models by assessing so-called functional relationship... Read More about Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models.

Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes (2022)
Journal Article
Virkki, V., Alanärä, E., Porkka, M., Ahopelto, L., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Flörke, M., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Hanasaki, N., Müller Schmied, H., Wanders, N., & Kummu, M. (2022). Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(12), 3315-3336. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022

Human actions and climate change have drastically altered river flows across the world, resulting in adverse effects on riverine ecosystems. Environmental flows (EFs) have emerged as a prominent tool for safeguarding the riverine ecosystems, but at t... Read More about Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes.