Outputs (10)

Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology (2024)
Journal Article
Smith, M. W., Willis, T., Mroz, E., James, W. H., Klaar, M. J., Gosling, S. N., & Thomas, C. J. (2024). Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology. Science, 384(6696), 697-703. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adk8755

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vect... Read More about Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology.

The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa (2024)
Journal Article
Kunda, J. J., Gosling, S. N., & Foody, G. M. (2024). The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa. International Journal of Biometeorology, 68, 1015-1033. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02650-4

This review examines high-quality research evidence that synthesises the effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa. Web of Science (WoS) was used to identify research articles on the effects extreme heat, humidity, Wet-bulb Globe Tem... Read More about The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa.

Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change (2024)
Journal Article
Porkka, M., Virkki, V., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Gerten, D., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., Fetzer, I., Jaramillo, F., Staal, A., te Wierik, S., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R., Döll, P., Flörke, M., Gosling, S. N., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Müller Schmied, H., Wanders, N., Famiglietti, J. S., …Kummu, M. (2024). Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change. Nature Water, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7

Human actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Here, using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrol... Read More about Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change.

Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models (2023)
Journal Article
Gnann, S., Reinecke, R., Stein, L., Wada, Y., Thiery, W., Satoh, Y., Pokhrel, Y., Ostberg, S., Koutroulis, A., Hanasaki, N., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S. N., Burek, P., Bierkens, M. F. P., & Wagener, T. (2023). Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models. Nature Water, 1, 1079-1090. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00160-y

AbstractGlobal water models are increasingly used to understand past, present and future water cycles, but disagreements between simulated variables make model-based inferences uncertain. Although there is empirical evidence of different large-scale... Read More about Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models.

Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a) (2023)
Preprint / Working Paper
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., Rivas López, M. D. R., Otto, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Karger, D. N., Malle, J. T., Treu, S., Menz, C., Blanchard, J. L., Harrison, C. S., Petrik, C. M., Eddy, T. D., Ortega-Cisneros, K., Novaglio, C., Rousseau, Y., Watson, R. A., …Bechtold, M. Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, www.isimip.org) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human... Read More about Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a).

Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes (2022)
Journal Article
Virkki, V., Alanärä, E., Porkka, M., Ahopelto, L., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Flörke, M., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Hanasaki, N., Müller Schmied, H., Wanders, N., & Kummu, M. (2022). Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(12), 3315-3336. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022

Human actions and climate change have drastically altered river flows across the world, resulting in adverse effects on riverine ecosystems. Environmental flows (EFs) have emerged as a prominent tool for safeguarding the riverine ecosystems, but at t... Read More about Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes.

The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change (2022)
Journal Article
Satoh, Y., Yoshimura, K., Pokhrel, Y., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Yokohata, T., Hanasaki, N., Wada, Y., Burek, P., Byers, E., Schmied, H. M., Gerten, D., Ostberg, S., Gosling, S. N., Boulange, J. E. S., & Oki, T. (2022). The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change. Nature Communications, 13(1), Article 3287. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2

Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examin... Read More about The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change.

Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments (2022)
Journal Article
Kumar, A., Gosling, S. N., Johnson, M. F., Jones, M. D., Zaherpour, J., Kumar, R., Leng, G., Schmied, H. M., Kupzig, J., Breuer, L., Hanasaki, N., Tang, Q., Ostberg, S., Stacke, T., Pokhrel, Y., Wada, Y., & Masaki, Y. (2022). Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments. Advances in Water Resources, 165, Article 104212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104212

Although global- and catchment-scale hydrological models are often shown to accurately simulate long-term runoff time-series, far less is known about their suitability for capturing hydrological extremes, such as droughts. Here we evaluated simulatio... Read More about Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments.

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study (2021)
Journal Article
Reinecke, R., Müller Schmied, H., Trautmann, T., Seaby Andersen, L., Burek, P., Flörke, M., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Pokhrel, Y., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Yusuke, S., & Döll, P. (2021). Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(2), 787-810. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021

Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change w... Read More about Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study.

Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change (2021)
Journal Article
Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke, A., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Kim, H., Koutroulis, A., Liu, J., Papadimitriou, L., Schewe, J., Müller Schmied, H., Stacke, T., Telteu, C. E., Thiery, W., …Wada, Y. (2021). Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 11(3), 226-233. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) modulates the hydrological cycle and is a key determinant of water availability and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been increasingly studied, future changes in TWS and the linkages to dro... Read More about Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change.