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The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change

Satoh, Yusuke; Yoshimura, Kei; Pokhrel, Yadu; Kim, Hyungjun; Shiogama, Hideo; Yokohata, Tokuta; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Burek, Peter; Byers, Edward; Schmied, Hannes Müller; Gerten, Dieter; Ostberg, Sebastian; Gosling, Simon Newland; Boulange, Julien Eric Stanslas; Oki, Taikan

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Authors

Yusuke Satoh

Kei Yoshimura

Yadu Pokhrel

Hyungjun Kim

Hideo Shiogama

Tokuta Yokohata

Naota Hanasaki

Yoshihide Wada

Peter Burek

Edward Byers

Hannes Müller Schmied

Dieter Gerten

Sebastian Ostberg

Dr SIMON GOSLING SIMON.GOSLING@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
Professor of Climate Risks and Environmental Modelling

Julien Eric Stanslas Boulange

Taikan Oki



Abstract

Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. Additionally, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.

Citation

Satoh, Y., Yoshimura, K., Pokhrel, Y., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Yokohata, T., …Oki, T. (2022). The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change. Nature Communications, 13(1), Article 3287. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 16, 2022
Online Publication Date Jun 28, 2022
Publication Date Jun 28, 2022
Deposit Date May 20, 2022
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal Nature Communications
Electronic ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 13
Issue 1
Article Number 3287
DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2
Keywords General Physics and Astronomy; General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology; General Chemistry; Multidisciplinary
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/8136800
Publisher URL https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30729-2

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