All Outputs (3)

The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity (2023)
Journal Article
Ball, F., Critcher, L., Neal, P., & Sirl, D. (2023). The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 87(6), Article 83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-02010-7

The disease-induced herd immunity level hD is the fraction of the population that must be infected by an epidemic to ensure that a new epidemic among the remaining susceptible population is not supercritical. For a homogeneously mixing population hD... Read More about The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity.

Strong convergence of an epidemic model with mixing groups (2023)
Journal Article
Ball, F., & Neal, P. (in press). Strong convergence of an epidemic model with mixing groups. Advances in Applied Probability, https://doi.org/10.1017/apr.2023.29

We consider an SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemic in a closed population of size n, in which infection spreads via mixing events, comprising individuals chosen uniformly at random from the population, which occur at the points of a Po... Read More about Strong convergence of an epidemic model with mixing groups.

The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data (2023)
Journal Article
Ball, F., & Neal, P. (2023). The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data. Advances in Applied Probability, 55(3), 895-926. https://doi.org/10.1017/apr.2022.58

During an epidemic outbreak, typically only partial information about the outbreak is known. A common scenario is that the infection times of individuals are unknown, but individuals, on displaying symptoms, are identified as infectious and removed f... Read More about The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data.