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Advancing water quality model intercomparisons under global change: Perspectives from the new ISIMIP water quality sector (2025)
Journal Article
Strokal, M., Kumar, R., Bak, M. P., Jones, E. R., Beusen, A. H. W., Flörke, M., Grizzetti, B., Nkwasa, A., Schweden, K., Ural-Janssen, A., Van Griensven, A., Vigiak, O., Van Vliet, M. T. H., Wang, M., De Graaf, I., Dürr, H. H., Gosling, S. N., Hofstra, N., Nakkazi, M. T., Ouedraogo, I., …Micella, I. (2025). Advancing water quality model intercomparisons under global change: Perspectives from the new ISIMIP water quality sector. Environmental Research: Water, 1(3), https://doi.org/10.1088/3033-4942/adf571

Water pollution poses widespread risks to ecosystems, human health, and water users more broadly. Furthermore, the interplay of future hydroclimatic changes and socioeconomic developments will strongly impact the quality status of freshwaters across... Read More about Advancing water quality model intercomparisons under global change: Perspectives from the new ISIMIP water quality sector.

China's nationwide streamflow decline driven by landscape changes and human interventions (2025)
Journal Article
Wang, K., Liu, X., Cui, P., Zhang, Y., Xie, J., Liu, C., & Gosling, S. N. (2025). China's nationwide streamflow decline driven by landscape changes and human interventions. Science Advances, 11(32), Article 8032. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adu8032

China’s rivers support nearly 20% of the global population and supply freshwater for the world’s largest proportion of industrial output and grain production. Despite their importance, nationwide streamflow changes and their drivers remain unclear be... Read More about China's nationwide streamflow decline driven by landscape changes and human interventions.

Integration of the Global Water and Lake Sectors within the ISIMIP framework through scaling of streamflow inputs to lakes (2025)
Preprint / Working Paper
Ayala, A. I., Hinostroza, J. L., Mercado-Bettín, D., Marcé, R., Gosling, S. N., Pierson, D. C., & Sobek, S. (2025). Integration of the Global Water and Lake Sectors within the ISIMIP framework through scaling of streamflow inputs to lakes

Climate change impacts both lakes and their surrounding catchments, leading to altered discharge and nutrient loading patterns from catchments to lakes, as well as modified thermal stratification and mixing dynamics within lakes. These alterations af... Read More about Integration of the Global Water and Lake Sectors within the ISIMIP framework through scaling of streamflow inputs to lakes.

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change (2025)
Journal Article
Jones, E. R., van Beek, R., Cárdenas Belleza, G., Burek, P., Dugdale, S. J., Flörke, M., Fridman, D., Gosling, S. N., Kumar, R., Mercado-Bettin, D., Müller Schmied, H., Tan, Z., Thiery, W., Tilahun, A. B., Wanders, N., & van Vliet, M. T. H. (2025). A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change. Environmental Research: Water, 1(2), Article 025002. https://doi.org/10.1088/3033-4942/addffa

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which i... Read More about A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change.

Similarities and divergent patterns in hydrologic fluxes and storages simulated by global water models (2025)
Journal Article
Tiwari, A. D., Pokhrel, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Guillaumot, L., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Ostberg, S., Otta, K., Schmied, H. M., Satoh, Y., Scanlon, B., Stacke, T., & Yokohata, T. (2025). Similarities and divergent patterns in hydrologic fluxes and storages simulated by global water models. Nature Water, 3, Article 550-560. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-025-00435-6

Global water models (GWMs) are critical tools for understanding the Earth’s water cycle and water resource management under a changing climate and accelerating human interventions. Although GWMs have been evaluated for hydrologic fluxes (for example,... Read More about Similarities and divergent patterns in hydrologic fluxes and storages simulated by global water models.

Projected exposure of terrestrial vertebrates to different extreme climate events reveals high vulnerability to multiple hazards (2025)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Heinicke, S., Zantout, K., Kühl, H. S., Reyer, C. P., Zimmermann, S., Billing, M., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hantson, S., Ito, A., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Koutroulis, A., Mester, B., Müller Schmied, H., Ostberg, S., Otta, K., Pokhrel, Y., & Frieler, K. (2025, April). Projected exposure of terrestrial vertebrates to different extreme climate events reveals high vulnerability to multiple hazards. Presented at EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria and online

Cascading droughts: Exploring global propagation of meteorological to hydrological droughts (1971–2001) (2025)
Journal Article
Kumar, A., Gosling, S. N., Johnson, M. F., Johnson, M. F., Jones, M. D., Nkwasa, A., Koutroulis, A., Schmied, H. M., Li, H.-Y., Kim, H., Hanasaki, N., Kumar, R., Thiery, W., & Pokhrel, Y. (2025). Cascading droughts: Exploring global propagation of meteorological to hydrological droughts (1971–2001). Science of the Total Environment, 979, Article 179486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179486

An understanding of the spatiotemporal behaviour of Meteorological drought (MD) and Hydrological drought (HD) is crucial for analysing how drought propagation occurs. Here, drought events were treated as three-dimensional grid structures spanning spa... Read More about Cascading droughts: Exploring global propagation of meteorological to hydrological droughts (1971–2001).

Graphical representation of global water models (2025)
Journal Article
Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., Garnsworthy, M., Müller, L., Telteu, C.-E., Kainan Ahmed, A., Seaby Andersen, L., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Chang, J., Chen, H., Gudmundsson, L., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Kumar, R., Leng, G., Liu, J., Liu, X., …Yokohata, T. (2025). Graphical representation of global water models. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(8), 2409-2425. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025

Numerical models are simplified representations of the real world at a finite level of complexity. Global water models are used to simulate the terrestrial part of the global water cycle, and their outputs contribute to the evaluation of important na... Read More about Graphical representation of global water models.

Towards the use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir storage in global hydrological models: methodology and pilot study in the CONUS (2025)
Journal Article
Otta, K., Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., & Hanasaki, N. (2025). Towards the use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir storage in global hydrological models: methodology and pilot study in the CONUS. Environmental Research: Water, 1(1), Article 015002. https://doi.org/10.1088/3033-4942/adc47b

Although river discharge simulations from global hydrological models (GHMs) have undergone extensive validation, there has been less validation of reservoir operations, primarily because of limited observational data. Recent advancements in satellite... Read More about Towards the use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir storage in global hydrological models: methodology and pilot study in the CONUS.

Benefits of Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model for Regional Analyses of Flood and Drought Projections: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin (2025)
Journal Article
Zhao, F., Nie, N., Liu, Y., Yi, C., Guillaumot, L., Wada, Y., Burek, P., Smilovic, M., Frieler, K., Buechner, M., Schewe, J., & Gosling, S. N. (2025). Benefits of Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model for Regional Analyses of Flood and Drought Projections: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin. Water Resources Research, 61(3), Article e2024WR037153. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037153

Uncalibrated global hydrological models are primarily used to inform projections of flood and drought changes under global warming and their impacts, but it remains unclear how model calibration might benefit these projections. Using the Yangtze Rive... Read More about Benefits of Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model for Regional Analyses of Flood and Drought Projections: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin.

The future of decent work: Forecasting heat stress and the intersection of sustainable development challenges in India's brick kilns (2024)
Journal Article
Boyd, D. S., Jackson, B., Sparks, J. D., Foody, G. M., Girindran, R., Gosling, S., Trodd, Z., Bhriain, L. H., & Rodriguez-Huerta, E. (2025). The future of decent work: Forecasting heat stress and the intersection of sustainable development challenges in India's brick kilns. Sustainable Development, 33(2), 3099-3117. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3272

The impacts of climate change-induced heat stress on workers are most prevalent in sectors with decent work deficits and this requires consideration for sustainable development. This paper focuses on the informal economy of brick kilns in India, a se... Read More about The future of decent work: Forecasting heat stress and the intersection of sustainable development challenges in India's brick kilns.

Heat stress and the labour force (2024)
Journal Article
Dasgupta, S., Robinson, E. J. Z., Shayegh, S., Bosello, F., Park, R. J., & Gosling, S. N. (2024). Heat stress and the labour force. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 5, 859-872. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00606-1

Heat stress affects the health of workers through physiological and behavioural responses, in turn, affecting the labour force through impacts on labour supply, labour productivity and labour capacity. In this Review, we explore the extent to which h... Read More about Heat stress and the labour force.

Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity (2024)
Journal Article
Liu, J., Li, D., Chen, H., Wang, H., Wada, Y., Gosling, S. N., Yang, H., Pokhrel, Y., & Ciais, P. (2024). Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity. Nature Communications, 15, Article 7129. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51302-z

Alleviating water scarcity is at the core of Sustainable Development Goal 6. Yet the timing of water scarcity in its onset and possible relief in different regions of the world due to climate change and changing human population dynamics remains poor... Read More about Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity.

Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia (2024)
Journal Article
Baigaliyeva, M., Mount, N., Gosling, S. N., & McGowan, S. (2024). Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia. PLoS ONE, 19(7), Article e0305721. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0305721

Endorheic lakes, lacking river outflows, are highly sensitive to environmental changes and human interventions. Central Asia (CA) has over 6000 lakes that have experienced substantial water level variability in the past century, yet causes of recent... Read More about Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia.

Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge (2024)
Journal Article
Heinicke, S., Volkholz, J., Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Müller Schmied, H., Zimmermann, S., Mengel, M., Sauer, I. J., Burek, P., Chang, J., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A. G., Otta, K., Qi, W., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Yokohata, T., & Frieler, K. (2024). Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge. Environmental Research Letters, 19(7), Article 074005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad52b0

Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the 'model evaluation and impact attribution' part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model... Read More about Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge.

Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology (2024)
Journal Article
Smith, M. W., Willis, T., Mroz, E., James, W. H., Klaar, M. J., Gosling, S. N., & Thomas, C. J. (2024). Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology. Science, 384(6696), 697-703. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adk8755

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vect... Read More about Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology.

A survey of past and future changes in global river flow (2024)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Gudmundsson, L., Brunner, M., Döll, P., Fluet-Chouinard, E., Gosling, S. N., Hirabayashi, Y., Müller Schmied, H., Slater, L., Stein, L., Wasko, C., Yamazaki, D., & Zhou, X. (2024, April). A survey of past and future changes in global river flow. Presented at EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria & Online

The Water Quality Protocol for Model Intercomparisons Under Climate Change Impacts (2024)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Strokal, M., Micella, I., P. Bak, M., H. W. Beusen, A., Flörke, M., N. Gosling, S., Van Griensven, A., Grizzetti, B., Hofstra, N., R. Jones, E., Kroeze, C., Nkwasa, A., Troost, T., T.H. van Vliet, M., Wang, M., & Kumar, R. (2024, April). The Water Quality Protocol for Model Intercomparisons Under Climate Change Impacts. Presented at EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria & Online