All Outputs (3)

Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring (2021)
Journal Article
Ball, F., & Britton, T. (2022). Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring. Random Structures and Algorithms, 61(2), 250-297. https://doi.org/10.1002/rsa.21066

A stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a network, described initially by an Erd˝os-R´enyi random graph, in which susceptible individuals connected to infectious neighbours may drop... Read More about Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring.

Central limit theorems for SIR epidemics and percolation on configuration model random graphs (2021)
Journal Article
Ball, F. (2021). Central limit theorems for SIR epidemics and percolation on configuration model random graphs. Annals of Applied Probability, 31(5), 2091-2142. https://doi.org/10.1214/20-AAP1642

We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemic defined on a configuration model random graph, in which infective individuals can infect only their neighbours in the graph during an infectious period which has an arbitrary... Read More about Central limit theorems for SIR epidemics and percolation on configuration model random graphs.

The risk for a new COVID-19 wave and how it depends on R 0, the current immunity level and current restrictions (2021)
Journal Article
Britton, T., Trapman, P., & Ball, F. (2021). The risk for a new COVID-19 wave and how it depends on R 0, the current immunity level and current restrictions. Royal Society Open Science, 8(7), Article 210386. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210386

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit different regions differently. The current disease-induced immunity level î in a region approximately equals the cumulative fraction infected, which primarily depends on two factors: (i) the initial potential for COVID-1... Read More about The risk for a new COVID-19 wave and how it depends on R 0, the current immunity level and current restrictions.