The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy

Matta, Samer; Appleton, Simon; Bleaney, Michael

Abstract

© 2016 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK. We use Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the "Arab Spring." Our results suggest that the loss was 5.5 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.4 percent of GDP in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests, and are consistent with those from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of Tunisia's economic growth. Moreover, we find that investment was the main channel through which the economy was adversely impacted by the Arab Spring.

Citation

Matta, S., Appleton, S., & Bleaney, M. (2019). The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy. World Bank Economic Review, 33(1), 231-258. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhw059

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Sep 4, 2016
• Online Publication Date: Nov 17, 2016
• Publication Date: Feb 1, 2019
• Deposit Date: Nov 7, 2016
• Publicly Available Date: Nov 17, 2016
• Journal: World Bank Economic Review
• Print ISSN: 0258-6770
• Electronic ISSN: 1564-698X
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 33
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 231-258
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhw059
• Keywords: Arab Spring, Tunisia, Economic Impact, Synthetic Control Methodology
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/828140
• Publisher URL: http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/11/05/wber.lhw059.full.pdf+html
• Additional Information: This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in World Bank Economic Review following peer review. The version of record The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy; World Bank Econ Rev first published online November 17, 2016 is available online at: http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/11/05/wber.lhw059
• Contract Date: Nov 7, 2016