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Operation Pied Piper: a geographical reappraisal of the impact of wartime evacuation on scarlet fever and diphtheria rates in England and Wales, 1939–1945

Smallman-Raynor, Matthew; Cliff, Andrew

Operation Pied Piper: a geographical reappraisal of the impact of wartime evacuation on scarlet fever and diphtheria rates in England and Wales, 1939–1945 Thumbnail


Authors

Andrew Cliff



Abstract

This paper examines the geographical impact of the British Government’s wartime evacuation scheme on notified rates of two common acute childhood diseases (scarlet fever and diphtheria) in the 1470 local government districts of England and Wales, 1939–1945. Drawing on the notifications of communicable diseases collated by the General Register Office (GRO), we establish pre-war (baseline) disease rates for the 1470 districts. For the war years, techniques of binary logistic regression analysis are used to assess the associations between (a) above-baseline (‘raised’) disease rates in evacuation, neutral and reception districts and (b) the major phases of the evacuation scheme. The analysis demonstrates that the evacuation was temporally associated with distinct national and regional effects on notified levels of disease activity. These effects were most pronounced in the early years of the dispersal (1939–1941) and corresponded with initial levels of evacuation-related population change at the regional and district scales.

Citation

Smallman-Raynor, M., & Cliff, A. (2015). Operation Pied Piper: a geographical reappraisal of the impact of wartime evacuation on scarlet fever and diphtheria rates in England and Wales, 1939–1945. Epidemiology and Infection, 143(14), 2923-2938. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268815000175

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jan 21, 2015
Online Publication Date Feb 23, 2015
Publication Date 2015-10
Deposit Date Jan 30, 2015
Publicly Available Date Feb 23, 2015
Journal Epidemiology and Infection
Print ISSN 0950-2688
Electronic ISSN 1469-4409
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 143
Issue 14
Pages 2923-2938
DOI https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268815000175
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/993109
Additional Information This article has been published in a revised form in Epidemiology and Infection https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268815000175. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works. © Cambridge University Press.
Contract Date Jan 30, 2015

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