Systemic risk and macroeconomic fat tails

Bougheas, Spiros; Harvey, David; Kirman, Alan

Abstract

We propose a mechanism for shock amplification that potentially can account for fat tails in the distribution of the growth rate of national output. We argue that extreme macroeconomic events, such as the Great Depression and the Great Recession, were preceded by significant turmoil in the banking system. We have developed a model of bank network formation and presented numerical simulations that show that, for the benchmark case, aggregate credit follows a random walk. When we introduce fire sales the model does not only produce larger variations in the growth of aggregate credit but also shows that there is an asymmetry between booms and busts that is also consistent with empirical evidence.

Citation

Bougheas, S., Harvey, D., & Kirman, A. (2018). Systemic risk and macroeconomic fat tails. In P. Commendatore, I. Kubin, S. Bougheas, A. Kirman, M. Kopel, & G. I. Bischi (Eds.), The economy as a complex spatial system (119-136). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65627-4_6

• Acceptance Date: Jul 31, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Sep 19, 2017
• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2018
• Deposit Date: Sep 20, 2017
• Publicly Available Date: Sep 20, 2017
• Electronic ISSN: 2213-8684
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Pages: 119-136
• Series Title: Springer proceedings in complexity
• Series ISSN: 2213-8692
• Book Title: The economy as a complex spatial system
• ISBN: 978-3-319-65626-7
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65627-4_6
• Keywords: Systemic risk; Banking system; Aggregate risk; Financial network; Fat tails
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/963716
• Publisher URL: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-65627-4_6
• Related Public URLs: http://www.springer.com/gb/book/9783319656267?wt_mc=ThirdParty.SpringerLink.3.EPR653.About_eBook
• Contract Date: Sep 20, 2017