Decline in seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness with vaccination program maturation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Okoli, George N.; Racovitan, Florentin; Abdulwahid, Tiba; Hyder, Syed K.; Lansbury, Louise; Righolt, Christiaan H.; Mahmud, Salaheddin M.; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S.

Abstract

Objectives

Evidence suggests repeated influenza vaccination may reduce vaccine effectiveness (VE). Using influenza vaccination program maturation (number of years since program inception) [PM] as proxy for population-level repeated vaccination, we assessed the impact on pooled adjusted end-season VE estimates from outpatient test-negative design studies.

Methods
We systematically searched and selected full-text publications from January 2011 to February 2020 (PROSPERO: CRD42017064595). We obtained influenza vaccination program inception year for each country and calculated PM as the difference between the year of deployment and year of program inception. We categorized PM into halves (cut at the median), tertiles, and quartiles, and calculated pooled VE using an inverse variance, random effects model. The primary outcome was pooled VE against all influenza.

Results

We included 72 articles from 11,931 unique citations. Across the three categorizations of PM, a lower pooled VE against all influenza for all patients was observed with PM. Substantially higher reductions were observed in older adults (≥65 years). We observed similar results for A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and influenza B.

Conclusions

The evidence suggests influenza VE declines with vaccination PM. This study forms the basis for further discussions and examinations of the potential impact of vaccination PM on seasonal VE.

Citation

Okoli, G. N., Racovitan, F., Abdulwahid, T., Hyder, S. K., Lansbury, L., Righolt, C. H., Mahmud, S. M., & Nguyen-Van-Tam, J. S. (2021). Decline in seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness with vaccination program maturation: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Open Forum Infectious Diseases, 8(3), Article ofab069. https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofab069

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 29, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Feb 5, 2021
• Publication Date: 2021-03
• Deposit Date: Feb 11, 2021
• Publicly Available Date: Feb 11, 2021
• Journal: Open Forum Infectious Diseases
• Print ISSN: 2328-8957
• Electronic ISSN: 2328-8957
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 8
• Issue: 3
• Article Number: ofab069
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofab069
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/5312605
• Publisher URL: https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/8/3/ofab069/6129135