Political Polarization and US-Mexico Migration

Caballero, María Esther; Ippedico, Giuseppe; Peri, Giovanni

Abstract

We study how the US presidential election of 2016 affected the subsequent inflow of Mexican-born immigrants. We use the "Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad" data to construct proxies for annual inflows and internal movements of Mexican-born individuals, including undocumented immigrants, across US commuting zones. We find that a 10-percentage point increase in the Republican vote share in a commuting zone reduced inflows by 1.8 percent after the 2016 Trump election. The internal relocation of established Mexican immigrants primarily explains this reduction, though inflows of new immigrants decreased as well.

Citation

Caballero, M. E., Ippedico, G., & Peri, G. (2025). Political Polarization and US-Mexico Migration. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 115, 421-426. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20251025

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Mar 1, 2025
• Online Publication Date: May 1, 2025
• Publication Date: May 1, 2025
• Deposit Date: Jun 16, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: Jun 16, 2025
• Journal: AEA Papers and Proceedings
• Print ISSN: 2574-0768
• Electronic ISSN: 2574-0776
• Publisher: American Economic Association
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 115
• Pages: 421-426
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20251025
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/50438445
• Publisher URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pandp.20251025