A Partially Pooled NSUM Model: Detailed estimation of CSEM trafficking prevalence in Philippine municipalities

Nyarko-Agyei, Albert; Moser, Scott; Seymour, Rowland G; Brewster, Ben; Li, Sabrina; Weir, Esther; Landman, Todd; Wyman, Emily; Torres, Christine Belle; Fell, Imogen; Boyd, Doreen

Abstract

Effective policy and intervention strategies to combat human trafficking for child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) production require accurate prevalence estimates. Traditional Network Scale Up Method (NSUM) models often necessitate stan-dalone surveys for each geographic region, escalating costs and complexity. This study introduces a partially pooled NSUM model, using a hierarchical Bayesian framework that efficiently aggregates and utilizes data across multiple regions without increasing sample sizes. We developed this model for a novel national survey dataset from the Philippines and we demonstrate its ability to produce detailed municipal-level prevalence estimates of trafficking for CSEM production. Our results not only underscore the model's precision in estimating hidden populations but also highlight its potential for broader application in other areas of social science and public health research, offering significant implications for resource allocation and intervention planning.

Citation

Nyarko-Agyei, A., Moser, S., Seymour, R. G., Brewster, B., Li, S., Weir, E., Landman, T., Wyman, E., Torres, C. B., Fell, I., & Boyd, D. (2025). A Partially Pooled NSUM Model: Detailed estimation of CSEM trafficking prevalence in Philippine municipalities. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, Article qlaf033. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlaf033

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 8, 2025
• Online Publication Date: May 27, 2025
• Publication Date: May 27, 2025
• Deposit Date: Apr 10, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: May 28, 2026
• Journal: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C
• Print ISSN: 0035-9254
• Electronic ISSN: 1467-9876
• Publisher: Wiley
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Article Number: qlaf033
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlaf033
• Keywords: prevalence estimation; network scale up methods; child sexual exploitation 2 Nyarko-Agyei et al
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/47554392
• Publisher URL: https://academic.oup.com/jrsssc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jrsssc/qlaf033/8151526