Electoral Shocks: The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World

Fieldhouse, Edward; Green, Jane; Evans, Geoffrey; Mellon, Jonathan; Prosser, Christopher; Schmitt, Hermann; van der Eijk, Cees

Abstract

'Electoral Shocks' offers a novel perspective on British elections, focusing on the role of electoral shocks in the context of increasing electoral volatility. It demonstrates and explains the long-term trend in volatility, how shocks have contributed to it, and which parties have benefited from it. It follows in the tradition of British Election Study books, providing a comprehensive account of specific election outcomes --the General Elections of 2015 and 2017-- and a more general and novel approach to understanding electoral change.
The authors examine five electoral shocks that affected the elections of 2015 and 2017: the rise of immigration after 2004, the Global financial crisis prior to 2010, the coalition government of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats between 2010 and 2015, the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014, and the European Union Referendum in 2016.
The focus on electoral shocks offers an overarching explanation for the volatility in British elections, alongside the long-term trends that have led us to this point. It offers a way to understand the rise and fall of UKIP, Labour's disappointing 2015 performance and its later unexpected gains, the collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats, the dramatic gains of the SNP in 2015 and the continuing period of tumultuous politics that has followed the EU referendum and the General Election of 2017. It provides a new way of understanding electoral choice in Britain, and also beyond, and a better understanding of the outcomes of recent elections.

Citation

Fieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans, G., Mellon, J., Prosser, C., Schmitt, H., & van der Eijk, C. (2019). Electoral Shocks: The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198800583.001.0001

• Book Type: Authored Book
• Online Publication Date: Jan 23, 2020
• Publication Date: Dec 13, 2019
• Deposit Date: Jun 15, 2020
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• ISBN: 9780198800583
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198800583.001.0001
• Keywords: election, Britain, electoral shock, electoral volatility, referendum, Scottish Independence Referendum, EU Referendum. British Election Study, BES, electoral behaviour.
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/4096101
• Publisher URL: https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780198800583.001.0001/oso-9780198800583
• Additional Information: Linked to existing datasets and other outputs: ; ; Fieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans, G., Schmitt, H., Van der Eijk, C., Mellon, J. and Prosser, C., 2017. British Election Study Panel 2014-2018.; ; Fieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans, G., Schmitt, H., van der Eijk, C., Mellon, J. and Prosser, C., 2014-2018. British Election Study: Internet Panel Survey 2014-2018 [computer file].; ; Fieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans, G., Schmitt, H., van der Eijk, C., Mellon, J. and Prosser, C., 2015. British election study 2015 face-to-face post-election survey. UK Data Service.; ; Fieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans, G., Schmitt, H., van der Eijk, C., Mellon, J. and Prosser, C., 2015. British Election Study, 2015: Face-to-Face Survey [computer file].; ; Fieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans, G., Schmitt, H., Van der Eijk, C., Mellon, J. and Prosser, C., 2018. British Election Study, 2017: Face-to-Face Survey.; ; Fieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans, G., Schmitt, H., van der Eijk, C., Mellon, J. and Prosser, C., 2017 British Election Study, 2017: Face-to-Face Survey [computer file].