Incorporating biodiversity responses to land use change scenarios for preventing emerging zoonotic diseases in areas of unknown host-pathogen interactions

Roque, Fabio de Oliveira; Bellón, Beatriz; Guerra, Angélica; Valente-Neto, Francisco; Santos, Cyntia C.; Melo, Isabel; Nobre Arcos, Adriano; de Oliveira, Alessandra Gutierrez; Valle Nunes, André; de Araujo Martins, Clarissa; Souza, Franco L.; Herrera, Heitor; Tavares, Luiz Eduardo R.; Almeida-Gomes, Mauricio; Pays, Olivier; Renaud, Pierre-Cyril; Gomes Barrios, Suellem Petilim; Yon, Lisa; Bowsher, Gemma; Sullivan, Richard; Johnson, Matthew; Grelle, Carlos E. V.; Ochoa-Quintero, Jose Manuel

doi:10.3389/fvets.2023.1229676

Incorporating biodiversity responses to land use change scenarios for preventing emerging zoonotic diseases in areas of unknown host-pathogen interactions

Roque, Fabio de Oliveira; Bellón, Beatriz; Guerra, Angélica; Valente-Neto, Francisco; Santos, Cyntia C.; Melo, Isabel; Nobre Arcos, Adriano; de Oliveira, Alessandra Gutierrez; Valle Nunes, André; de Araujo Martins, Clarissa; Souza, Franco L.; Herrera, Heitor; Tavares, Luiz Eduardo R.; Almeida-Gomes, Mauricio; Pays, Olivier; Renaud, Pierre-Cyril; Gomes Barrios, Suellem Petilim; Yon, Lisa; Bowsher, Gemma; Sullivan, Richard; Johnson, Matthew; Grelle, Carlos E. V.; Ochoa-Quintero, Jose Manuel

Authors

Fabio de Oliveira Roque

Beatriz Bellón

Angélica Guerra

Francisco Valente-Neto

Cyntia C. Santos

Isabel Melo

Adriano Nobre Arcos

Alessandra Gutierrez de Oliveira

André Valle Nunes

Clarissa de Araujo Martins

Franco L. Souza

Heitor Herrera

Luiz Eduardo R. Tavares

Mauricio Almeida-Gomes

Olivier Pays

Pierre-Cyril Renaud

Suellem Petilim Gomes Barrios

Dr LISA YON LISA.YON@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR

Gemma Bowsher

Richard Sullivan

Matthew Johnson

Carlos E. V. Grelle

Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero

Abstract

The need to reconcile food production, the safeguarding of nature, and the protection of public health is imperative in a world of continuing global change, particularly in the context of risks of emerging zoonotic disease (EZD). In this paper, we explored potential land use strategies to reduce EZD risks using a landscape approach. We focused on strategies for cases where the dynamics of pathogen transmission among species were poorly known and the ideas of “land-use induced spillover” and “landscape immunity” could be used very broadly. We first modeled three different land-use change scenarios in a region of transition between the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspots. The land-use strategies used to build our scenarios reflected different proportions of native vegetation cover, as a proxy of habitat availability. We then evaluated the effects of the proportion of native vegetation cover on the occupancy probability of a group of mammal species and analyzed how the different land-use scenarios might affect the distribution of species in the landscape and thus the risk of EZD. We demonstrate that these approaches can help identify potential future EZD risks, and can thus be used as decision-making tools by stakeholders, with direct implications for improving both environmental and socio-economic outcomes.

Citation

Roque, F. D. O., Bellón, B., Guerra, A., Valente-Neto, F., Santos, C. C., Melo, I., Nobre Arcos, A., de Oliveira, A. G., Valle Nunes, A., de Araujo Martins, C., Souza, F. L., Herrera, H., Tavares, L. E. R., Almeida-Gomes, M., Pays, O., Renaud, P.-C., Gomes Barrios, S. P., Yon, L., Bowsher, G., Sullivan, R., …Ochoa-Quintero, J. M. (2023). Incorporating biodiversity responses to land use change scenarios for preventing emerging zoonotic diseases in areas of unknown host-pathogen interactions. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 10, Article 1229676. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2023.1229676

Journal Article Type	Article
Acceptance Date	Oct 16, 2023
Online Publication Date	Nov 9, 2023
Publication Date	Nov 9, 2023
Deposit Date	Jan 2, 2024
Publicly Available Date	Jan 3, 2024
Journal	Frontiers in Veterinary Science
Electronic ISSN	2297-1769
Publisher	Frontiers Media
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	10
Article Number	1229676
DOI	https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2023.1229676
Keywords	General Veterinary
Public URL	https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/27855723
Publisher URL	https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2023.1229676/full

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