The role of reservoir species in mediating plague's dynamic response to climate

Fell, Henry Gillies; Jones, Matthew; Atkinson, Steve; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Algar, Adam C.

Abstract

The distribution and transmission of Yersinia pestis, the bacterial agent of plague, responds dynamically to climate, both within wildlife reservoirs and human populations. The exact mechanisms mediating plague's response to climate are still poorly understood, particularly across large environmentally heterogeneous regions encompassing several reservoir species. A heterogeneous response to precipitation was observed in plague intensity across northern and southern China during the Third Pandemic. This has been attributed to the response of reservoir species in each region. We use environmental niche modelling and hindcasting methods to test the response of a broad range of reservoir species to precipitation. We find little support for the hypothesis that the response of reservoir species to precipitation mediated the impact of precipitation on plague intensity. We instead observed that precipitation variables were of limited importance in defining species niches and rarely showed the expected response to precipitation across northern and southern China. These findings do not suggest that precipitation–reservoir species dynamics never influence plague intensity but that instead, the response of reservoir species to precipitation across a single biome cannot be assumed and that limited numbers of reservoir species may have a disproportional impact upon plague intensity.

Citation

Fell, H. G., Jones, M., Atkinson, S., Stenseth, N. C., & Algar, A. C. (2023). The role of reservoir species in mediating plague's dynamic response to climate. Royal Society Open Science, 10(5), Article 230021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230021

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 21, 2023
• Online Publication Date: May 17, 2023
• Publication Date: 2023-05
• Deposit Date: May 18, 2023
• Publicly Available Date: May 18, 2023
• Journal: Royal Society Open Science
• Electronic ISSN: 2054-5703
• Publisher: The Royal Society
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 10
• Issue: 5
• Article Number: 230021
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230021
• Keywords: plague, environmental niche modelling, Yersinia pestis, hindcasting, third pandemic
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/20836442
• Publisher URL: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.230021
• Additional Information: Received: 2023-01-06; Accepted: 2023-04-21; Published: 2023-05-17