Growth, import dependence, and war

Bonfatti, Roberto; O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortsh�j

Abstract

Theories of war predict that the leader may launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who attacked the West in 1941: both leaders and followers start wars. Similarly, many have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet the First World War erupted at a time of unprecedented globalisation. We develop a model of trade and war that can explain both observations. Dependence on imports can lead followers to attack leaders or resource‐rich regions when they are subject to blockade.

Citation

Bonfatti, R., & O'Rourke, K. H. (2018). Growth, import dependence, and war. Economic Journal, 128(614), 2222-2257. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12511

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 17, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Nov 22, 2017
• Publication Date: 2018-09
• Deposit Date: Sep 17, 2018
• Journal: Economic Journal
• Print ISSN: 0013-0133
• Publisher: Wiley
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 128
• Issue: 614
• Pages: 2222-2257
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12511
• Keywords: Economics and Econometrics
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1078243
• Publisher URL: https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecoj.12511