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Measuring “Group Cohesion” to Reveal the Power of Social Relationships in Team Production (2023)
Journal Article
Gächter, S., Starmer, C., & Tufano, F. (2023). Measuring “Group Cohesion” to Reveal the Power of Social Relationships in Team Production. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1-45. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01283

We introduce "group cohesion" to study the economic relevance of social relationships in team production. We operationalize measurement of group cohesion, adapting the "oneness scale" from psychology. A series of experiments, including a pre-register... Read More about Measuring “Group Cohesion” to Reveal the Power of Social Relationships in Team Production.

Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment (2023)
Journal Article
Bergolo, M., Ceni, R., Cruces, G., Giaccobasso, M., & Perez-Truglia, R. (2023). Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 15(1), 110-153. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200321

The canonical model of Allingham and Sandmo (1972) predicts that firms evade taxes by optimally trading off between the costs and benefits of evasion. However, there is no direct evidence that firms react to audits in this way. We conducted a large-s... Read More about Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment.

Who wins and who loses from state subsidies? (2023)
Journal Article
Du, J., Girma, S., Görg, H., & Stepanok, I. (2023). Who wins and who loses from state subsidies?. Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Canadienne d'Économique, 56(3), 1007-1031. https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12644

China is perceived to rely on subsidizing firms in targeted industries to improve their performance and stay competitive. We implement an approach that allows for the joint estimation of direct and indirect effects of subsidies on subsidized and non-... Read More about Who wins and who loses from state subsidies?.

Real-Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes (2023)
Journal Article
Whitehouse, E. J., Harvey, D. I., & Leybourne, S. J. (2023). Real-Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 85(3), 482-513. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12540

Given the financial and economic damage that can be caused by the collapse of an asset price bubble, it is of critical importance to rapidly detect the onset of a crash once a bubble has been identified. We develop a real-time monitoring procedure fo... Read More about Real-Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes.

“Greedy” demand adjustment in cooperative games (2023)
Journal Article
Montero, M., & Possajennikov, A. (2023). “Greedy” demand adjustment in cooperative games. Annals of Operations Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-023-05179-8

This paper studies a simple process of demand adjustment in cooperative games. In the process, a randomly chosen player makes the highest possible demand subject to the demands of other coalition members being satisfied. This process converges to the... Read More about “Greedy” demand adjustment in cooperative games.

Benefits of enhanced access to education in Tanzania (2023)
Journal Article
Donath, L., Morrissey, O., & Owens, T. (2023). Benefits of enhanced access to education in Tanzania. Development Policy Review, 41(3), Article e12674. https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12674

Motivation Expanding access to education is a desirable policy. Tanzania implemented Universal Primary Education (UPE) in 2001 and expanded secondary education in 2006. However, evidence that UPE delivers benefits in educational attainment or earnin... Read More about Benefits of enhanced access to education in Tanzania.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) …on your credit card (2023)
Journal Article
Guttman-Kenney, B., Firth, C., & Gathergood, J. (2023). Buy now, pay later (BNPL) …on your credit card. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 37, Article 100788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2023.100788

We provide the first economic research on ‘buy now, pay later’ (BNPL): an unregulated FinTech credit product enabling consumers to defer payments into interest-free instalments. We study BNPL using UK credit card transaction data. We document consume... Read More about Buy now, pay later (BNPL) …on your credit card.

Bonferroni Type Tests for Return Predictability and the Initial Condition (2023)
Journal Article
Astill, S., Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., & Taylor, A. M. (2023). Bonferroni Type Tests for Return Predictability and the Initial Condition. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Article 2201313. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2201313

We develop tests for predictability that are robust to both the magnitude of the initial condition and the degree of persistence of the predictor. While the popular Bonferroni Q test of Campbell and Yogo displays excellent power properties for strong... Read More about Bonferroni Type Tests for Return Predictability and the Initial Condition.

Estimating carbon footprints from large scale financial transaction data (2022)
Journal Article
Trendl, A., Owen, A., Vomfell, L., Kilian, L., Gathergood, J., Stewart, N., & Leake, D. (2023). Estimating carbon footprints from large scale financial transaction data. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 27(1), 56-70. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13351

Financial transactions are increasingly used by consumer apps and financial service providers to estimate consumption-based carbon emissions. This approach promises a low-resource, ultra-fast, and highly scalable approach to measuring emissions at di... Read More about Estimating carbon footprints from large scale financial transaction data.

The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity (2022)
Journal Article
Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Mizen, P., Smietanka, P., & Thwaites, G. (in press). The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity. Review of Economics and Statistics,

We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on productivity using data from an innovative monthly firm survey that asks for quantitative impacts of Covid-19 on inputs and outputs. We find total factor productivity (TFP) fell by up to 6% during 2020-21. The ove... Read More about The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity.

Procrastination in the Field: Evidence from Tax Filing (2022)
Journal Article
Martinez, S., Meier, S., & Sprenger, C. (2022). Procrastination in the Field: Evidence from Tax Filing. Journal of the European Economic Association, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac067

Understanding the structure of time preferences allows for accurate predictions of the effects of changing intertemporal incentives. Behavioral models of present bias are used to rationalize field data seemingly at odds with exponential discounting,... Read More about Procrastination in the Field: Evidence from Tax Filing.

The trade-GDP ratio as a measure of openness (2022)
Journal Article
Bleaney, M., & Tian, M. (2023). The trade-GDP ratio as a measure of openness. World Economy, 46(5), 1319-1332. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13355

The ratio of trade to GDP is often used as a summary measure of a country's openness to the rest of the world. It is well known that the trade-GDP ratio is affected by relatively time-invariant factors, such as country size and remoteness from tradin... Read More about The trade-GDP ratio as a measure of openness.

The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession (2022)
Journal Article
Jacob, N., & Mion, G. (2023). The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 85(5), 993-1022. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12533

We revisit the weak productivity performance of the UK since the Great Recession by means of both a suitable theoretical framework and firm-level price and quantity data for detailed products, allowing us to measure both demand and its changes over t... Read More about The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession.

The Value of Managers' Export Experience: Lessons from the Angolan Civil War (2022)
Journal Article
Mion, G., Opromolla, L. D., Sforza, A., Ornelas, E., Ottaviano, G., Overman, H., & Pisch, F. (in press). The Value of Managers' Export Experience: Lessons from the Angolan Civil War. Review of Economics and Statistics, https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01278

We investigate how managers help firms grow by entering a new export market. We conduct an event study on the decision to export to Angola using data on Portuguese firms and workers. We evaluate the impact of the presence of managers with experience... Read More about The Value of Managers' Export Experience: Lessons from the Angolan Civil War.

Communicating the move to individualized donor selection policy: Framing messages focused on recipients and safety (2022)
Journal Article
Ferguson, E., Bowen, S., Lawrence, C., Starmer, C., Barr, A., Davison, K., …Brailsford, S. R. (2023). Communicating the move to individualized donor selection policy: Framing messages focused on recipients and safety. Transfusion, 63(1), 171-181. https://doi.org/10.1111/trf.17175

Background: Men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) have been deferred from donating blood. However, recent evidence supports the adoption of donor screening based on individuals' sexual behavior over population-based criteria. We explore how best to frame c... Read More about Communicating the move to individualized donor selection policy: Framing messages focused on recipients and safety.

Inference in Heavy-Tailed Nonstationary Multivariate Time Series (2022)
Journal Article
Barigozzi, M., Cavaliere, G., & Trapani, L. (2024). Inference in Heavy-Tailed Nonstationary Multivariate Time Series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 119(545), 565-581. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2022.2128807

We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a nonstationary, N-variate time series yt, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail index, or even kno... Read More about Inference in Heavy-Tailed Nonstationary Multivariate Time Series.

Bankruptcy costs, idiosyncratic risk, and long-run growth (2022)
Journal Article
Acosta-Ormaechea, S., & Morozumi, A. (2023). Bankruptcy costs, idiosyncratic risk, and long-run growth. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(7), 1807-1842. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000475

This paper analyzes how idiosyncratic risk, measured by the variance of firm-level idiosyncratic shocks, affects long-run growth when bankruptcy costs are present. These costs are incurred by creditors during the bankruptcy procedure of failing firms... Read More about Bankruptcy costs, idiosyncratic risk, and long-run growth.

Superkurtosis (2022)
Journal Article
Degiannakis, S., Filis, G., Siourounis, G., & Trapani, L. (2023). Superkurtosis. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 55(8), 2061-2091. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12988

Very little is known on how traditional risk metrics behave under intraday trading. We fill this void by examining the finiteness of the returns' moments and assessing the impact of their infinity in a risk management framework. We show that when int... Read More about Superkurtosis.

Changepoint Detection in Heteroscedastic Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models (2022)
Journal Article
Horváth, L., & Trapani, L. (2023). Changepoint Detection in Heteroscedastic Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 41(4), 1300-1314. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2120485

We propose a family of CUSUM-based statistics to detect the presence of changepoints in the deterministic part of the autoregressive parameter in a Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) sequence. Our tests can be applied irrespective of whether the... Read More about Changepoint Detection in Heteroscedastic Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models.

An inquiry into the nature and causes of the Description - Experience gap (2022)
Journal Article
Cubitt, R., Kopsacheilis, O., & Starmer, C. (2022). An inquiry into the nature and causes of the Description - Experience gap. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 65(2), 105-137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09393-w

The Description-Experience gap (DE gap) is widely thought of as a tendency for people to act as if overweighting rare events when information about those events is derived from descriptions but as if underweighting rare events when they experience th... Read More about An inquiry into the nature and causes of the Description - Experience gap.