Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

All Outputs (86)

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment (2014)
Journal Article
Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., …Wisser, D. (2014). Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3262-3267. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222473110

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel exp... Read More about Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble (2014)
Journal Article
Dankers, R., Arnell, N. W., Clark, D. B., Falloon, P. D., Fekete, B. M., Gosling, S. N., …Wisser, D. (2014). First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3257-3261. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302078110

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulatio... Read More about First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble.

A glossary for biometeorology (2014)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., Bryce, E. K., Dixon, P. G., Gabriel, K. M., Gosling, E. Y., Hanes, J. M., …Wanka, E. R. (2014). A glossary for biometeorology. International Journal of Biometeorology, 58(2), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0729-9

Here we present, for the first time, a glossary of biometeorological terms. The glossary aims to address the need for a reliable source of biometeorological definitions, thereby facilitating communication and mutual understanding in this rapidly expa... Read More about A glossary for biometeorology.

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact (2014)
Journal Article
Arnell, N., Brown, S., Gosling, S. N., Hinkel, J., Huntingford, C., Lloyd-Hughes, B., …Zelazowski, P. (2014). Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact. Climatic Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is bec... Read More about Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change (2013)
Journal Article
Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N. W., Clark, D. B., …Kabat, P. (2014). Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3245-3250. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, ren... Read More about Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change (2013)
Journal Article
Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., …Wisser, D. (2014). Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3239-3244. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222474110

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agri... Read More about Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.

Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world (2013)
Journal Article
Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T. A., Clark, D. B., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., …Schellnhuber, H. J. (2014). Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3233-3238. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222471110

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, qu... Read More about Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world.

Global multimodel analysis of drought in runoff for the second half of the twentieth century (2013)
Journal Article
Van Huijgevoort, M. H., Hazenberg, P., Van Lanen, H. A., Teuling, A. J., Clark, D. B., Folwell, S., …Uijlenhoet, R. (2013). Global multimodel analysis of drought in runoff for the second half of the twentieth century. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14(5), 1535-1552. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0186.1

During the past decades large-scale models have been developed to simulate global and continental terrestrial water cycles. It is an open question whether thesemodels are suitable to capture hydrological drought, in terms of runoff, on a global scale... Read More about Global multimodel analysis of drought in runoff for the second half of the twentieth century.

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity (2013)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., & Arnell, N. (2013). A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Climatic Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water re... Read More about A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity.

The AVOID programme's new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation (2013)
Journal Article
Warren, R., Lowe, J. A., Arnell, N. W., Hope, C., Berry, P., Brown, S., …Vanderwal, J. (2013). The AVOID programme's new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation. Climatic Change, 120(1-2), 55-70. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0814-4

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both ph... Read More about The AVOID programme's new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation.

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models (2013)
Journal Article
Hagemann, S., Chen, C., Clark, D. B., Folwell, S., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., …Wiltshire, A. J. (2013). Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models. Earth System Dynamics, 4(1), 129-144. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013

Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrolo... Read More about Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models.

The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale (2013)
Journal Article
Arnell, N. W., & Gosling, S. N. (2013). The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale. Journal of Hydrology, 486, 351-364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP... Read More about The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale.

Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models (2013)
Journal Article
Thompson, J. R., Green, A. J., Kingston, D. G., & Gosling, S. N. (2013). Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models. Journal of Hydrology, 486, 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.029

Hydrological model-related uncertainty is often ignored within climate change hydrological impact assessments. A MIKE SHE model is developed for the Mekong using the same data as an earlier semi-distributed, conceptual model (SLURP). The model is cal... Read More about Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models.

The SSC: A decade of climate-health research and future directions (2013)
Journal Article
Hondula, D. M., Vanos, J. K., & Gosling, S. N. (2014). The SSC: A decade of climate-health research and future directions. International Journal of Biometeorology, 58(2), 109-120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0619-6

This year marks the tenth anniversary of the development of the revised Spatial Synoptic Classification, the "SSC", by Scott Sheridan. This daily weather-type classification scheme has become one of the key analytical tools implemented in a diverse r... Read More about The SSC: A decade of climate-health research and future directions.

A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change (2013)
Journal Article
Arnell, N. W., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Gosling, S. N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., …Warren, R. F. (2013). A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3(5), 512-519. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1793

This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered h... Read More about A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change.

The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services (2012)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N. (2013). The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services. Environmental Science and Policy, 27(Supplement 1), S15-S31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.03.011

This article reviews the level of current scientific understanding regarding the impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services. Impacts from sea level rise, ocean acidification, increases in ocean temperature,... Read More about The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services.

"Vulnerability hotspots": Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought (2012)
Journal Article
Fraser, E. D., Simelton, E., Termansen, M., Gosling, S. N., & South, A. (2013). "Vulnerability hotspots": Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 195-205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.008

The purpose of this paper is to identify which of the world's cereal producing regions are likely to become vulnerable to climate change over the 21st century by identifying those regions that will be (1) exposed to climatic stress and (2) have a lim... Read More about "Vulnerability hotspots": Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought.