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Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink (2020)
Journal Article
Loisel, J., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Amesbury, M. J., Magnan, G., Anshari, G., Beilman, D. W., …Wu, J. (2020). Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0

© 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models th... Read More about Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink.

The anatomy of behavioral responses to social assistance when informal employment is high (2020)
Journal Article
Bergolo, M., & Cruces, G. (2021). The anatomy of behavioral responses to social assistance when informal employment is high. Journal of Public Economics, 193, Article 104313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104313

The disincentive effects of social assistance programs on registered (or formal) employment are a first-order policy concern in developing and middle-income countries. We study the impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program in Uruguay on the... Read More about The anatomy of behavioral responses to social assistance when informal employment is high.

Micro to Macro: Optimal Trade Policy With Firm Heterogeneity (2020)
Journal Article
Costinot, A., Rodríguez-Clare, A., & Werning, I. (2020). Micro to Macro: Optimal Trade Policy With Firm Heterogeneity. Econometrica, 88(6), 2739-2776. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14763

The empirical observation that "large firms tend to export, whereas small firms do not" has transformed the way economists think about the determinants of international trade. Yet, it has had surprisingly little impact on how economists think about t... Read More about Micro to Macro: Optimal Trade Policy With Firm Heterogeneity.

The rhetoric of closed borders: quotas, lax enforcement and illegal immigration (2020)
Working Paper
Facchini, G., & Testa, C. The rhetoric of closed borders: quotas, lax enforcement and illegal immigration

Governments do not always enforce their laws, even when they have the means of doing so, and lax enforcement is common in the domain of immigration policy. To explain this paradox we develop a political agency model where gains from migration are une... Read More about The rhetoric of closed borders: quotas, lax enforcement and illegal immigration.

Skill-Biased Structural Change (2020)
Working Paper
Buera, F. J., Kaboski, J. P., Rogerson, R., & Vizcaino, J. I. Skill-Biased Structural Change

Using a broad panel of advanced economies we document that increases in GDP per capita are associated with a systematic shift in the composition of value added to sectors that are intensive in high-skill labor, a process we label as skill-biased stru... Read More about Skill-Biased Structural Change.

Do Better-Performing Nongovernmental Organizations Report More Accurately? Evidence from Financial Accounts in Uganda (2020)
Journal Article
Burger, R., Dang, C. T., & Owens, T. (2021). Do Better-Performing Nongovernmental Organizations Report More Accurately? Evidence from Financial Accounts in Uganda. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 69(2), 789-828. https://doi.org/10.1086/703099

We use Benford’s Law to investigate inaccurate financial reports of a representative sample of Ugandan nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). We find that 25% of the sample provided information that did not conform to the Benford distribution, suggest... Read More about Do Better-Performing Nongovernmental Organizations Report More Accurately? Evidence from Financial Accounts in Uganda.

Under-utilised crops and rural livelihoods: Bambara groundnut in Tanzania (2020)
Journal Article
Boulay, B., Khan, R., & Morrissey, O. (2021). Under-utilised crops and rural livelihoods: Bambara groundnut in Tanzania. Oxford Development Studies, 49(1), 88-103. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2020.1839040

Indigenous crops are often neglected in development research, largely because they are grown in particular localities and only account for modest shares of agricultural production at a national level. This article aims to rectify this neglect with re... Read More about Under-utilised crops and rural livelihoods: Bambara groundnut in Tanzania.

Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration (2020)
Journal Article
Graziano, A., Handley, K., & Limão, N. (2021). Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration. Economic Journal, 131(635), 1150–1185. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa113

We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade pol... Read More about Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration.

Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020)
Journal Article
Altig, D., Baker, S., Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., …Thwaites, G. (2020). Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Economics, 191, Article 104274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104274

We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based policy uncertainty, Twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty abo... Read More about Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cyclo(RGDfK) Functionalized Spider Silk Cell Scaffolds: Significantly Improved Performance in Just One Click (2020)
Journal Article
Harvey, D., Bray, G., Zamberlan, F., Amer, M., Goodacre, S. L., & Thomas, N. R. (2020). Cyclo(RGDfK) Functionalized Spider Silk Cell Scaffolds: Significantly Improved Performance in Just One Click. Macromolecular Bioscience, https://doi.org/10.1002/mabi.202000255

Recombinant spider silk has the potential to provide a new generation of biomaterial scaffolds as a result of its degree of biocompatibility and lack of immunogenicity. These recombinant biomaterials are, however, reported to exhibit poor cellular ad... Read More about Cyclo(RGDfK) Functionalized Spider Silk Cell Scaffolds: Significantly Improved Performance in Just One Click.

Monetary Policy, Credit Markets, and Banks: A DSGE Perspective (2020)
Journal Article
Rubio, M. (2020). Monetary Policy, Credit Markets, and Banks: A DSGE Perspective. Economics Letters, 195, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109481

The monetary policy transmission mechanism changed after the 2008 crisis. Evidence shows that credit markets and the banking system play now a predominant role in the pass-through of monetary policy to the real economy. This paper examines the moneta... Read More about Monetary Policy, Credit Markets, and Banks: A DSGE Perspective.

Optimal similarity judgments in intertemporal choice (and beyond) (2020)
Journal Article
Adriani, F., & Sonderegger, S. (2020). Optimal similarity judgments in intertemporal choice (and beyond). Journal of Economic Theory, 190, Article 105097. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2020.105097

We use a simple cost-benefit analysis to derive optimal similarity judgments – addressing the question: when should we expect a decision maker to distinguish between different time periods or different prizes? Our key premise is that cognitive resour... Read More about Optimal similarity judgments in intertemporal choice (and beyond).

Collective management of an environmental threat when exposure is heterogeneous: A complementary methods approach (2020)
Journal Article
Barr, A., Owens, T., & Perera, A. (2020). Collective management of an environmental threat when exposure is heterogeneous: A complementary methods approach. World Development, 135, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105078

We adopt a complementary methods approach to investigate whether and how heterogeneity in individual returns to a public good affects public good provision. We engage smallholder farmers in Sri Lanka in: a one-shot, framed, lab-in-the-field experimen... Read More about Collective management of an environmental threat when exposure is heterogeneous: A complementary methods approach.

Labor Responses, Regulation and Business Churn (2020)
Journal Article
Aloi, M., Dixon, H., & Savagar, A. (2021). Labor Responses, Regulation and Business Churn. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 53(1), 119-156. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12694

We develop a model of sluggish firm entry to explain short-run labor responses to technology shocks. We show that the labor response to technology and its persistence depend on the degree of returns to labor and the rate of firm entry. Existing empir... Read More about Labor Responses, Regulation and Business Churn.

Inflation targeting in low‐income countries: Does IT work? (2020)
Journal Article
Morozumi, A., Bleaney, M., & Mumuni, Z. (2020). Inflation targeting in low‐income countries: Does IT work?. Review of Development Economics, 24(4), 1529-1550. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12690

Previous research on inflation targeting (IT) has focused on high‐income countries and emerging market economies (EMEs). Only recently have sufficient data accumulated for the performance of IT in low‐income countries (LICs) to be assessed. We show t... Read More about Inflation targeting in low‐income countries: Does IT work?.

Real?Time Detection of Regimes of Predictability in the U.S. Equity Premium (2020)
Journal Article
Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., Sollis, R., & Taylor, A. R. (2021). Real?Time Detection of Regimes of Predictability in the U.S. Equity Premium. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 36(1), 45-70. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2794

We propose new real-time monitoring procedures for the emergence of end-of-sample predictive regimes using sequential implementations of standard (heteroskedasticity-robust) regression t-statistics for predictability applied over relatively short tim... Read More about Real?Time Detection of Regimes of Predictability in the U.S. Equity Premium.

The differential impact of friendship on cooperative and competitive coordination (2020)
Journal Article
Chierchia, G., Tufano, F., & Coricelli, G. (2020). The differential impact of friendship on cooperative and competitive coordination. Theory and Decision, 89(4), 423-452. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-020-09763-3

Friendship is commonly assumed to reduce strategic uncertainty and enhance tacit coordination. However, this assumption has never been tested across two opposite poles of coordination involving either strategic complementarity or substitutability. We... Read More about The differential impact of friendship on cooperative and competitive coordination.

Demand-driven Technical Change and Productivity Growth: Theory and Evidence from the Energy Policy Act (2020)
Journal Article
Impullitti, G., Kneller, R., & McGowan, D. (2020). Demand-driven Technical Change and Productivity Growth: Theory and Evidence from the Energy Policy Act. Journal of Industrial Economics, 68(2), 328-363. https://doi.org/10.1111/joie.12231

We present novel evidence on the effect of market size on technology adoption and productivity. Our tests exploit a natural experiment in the US corn industry where changes to national energy policy created exogenous increases in demand. Difference-i... Read More about Demand-driven Technical Change and Productivity Growth: Theory and Evidence from the Energy Policy Act.