All Outputs (2)

Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap (2016)
Journal Article
Garratt, A., Lee, K., & Shields, K. (2016). Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 70, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2016.06.004

A vector-autoregressive model of actual output and expected output obtained from surveys is used to test for information rigidities and to provide a characterisation of output dynamics that accommodates these information structures. News on actual an... Read More about Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap.

Forecasting global recessions in a GVAR model of actual and expected output (2016)
Journal Article
Garratt, A., Lee, K., & Shields, K. (2016). Forecasting global recessions in a GVAR model of actual and expected output. International Journal of Forecasting, 32(2), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.08.004

We compare a Global VAR model of actual and expected outputs with alternative models to assess the role of cross-country interdependencies and confidence in forecasting. Forecast performance is judged on point and density forecasts of growth, on proba... Read More about Forecasting global recessions in a GVAR model of actual and expected output.