All Outputs (4)

The deterministic Kermack?McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic (2016)
Journal Article
Wilkinson, R. R., Ball, F. G., & Sharkey, K. J. (2016). The deterministic Kermack?McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic. Journal of Applied Probability, 53(4), 1031-1040. https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2016.62

We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected number of s... Read More about The deterministic Kermack?McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic.

Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics: the effect of common population structure is small (2016)
Journal Article
Trapman, P., Ball, F., Dhersin, J., Tran, V. C., Wallinga, J., & Britton, T. (2016). Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics: the effect of common population structure is small. Interface, 13(121), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0288

When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease, it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R0 and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These parameters are est... Read More about Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics: the effect of common population structure is small.

On expected durations of birth-death processes with applications to branching processes and SIS epidemics (2016)
Journal Article
Ball, F., Britton, T., & Neal, P. (2016). On expected durations of birth-death processes with applications to branching processes and SIS epidemics. Journal of Applied Probability, 53(1), https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2015.19

We study continuous-time birth–death type processes, where individuals have independent and identically distributed lifetimes, according to a random variable Q, with E[Q] = 1, and where the birth rate if the population is currently in state (has size... Read More about On expected durations of birth-death processes with applications to branching processes and SIS epidemics.

Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures II: comparisons and implications for vaccination (2016)
Journal Article
Ball, F., Pellis, L., & Trapman, P. (2016). Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures II: comparisons and implications for vaccination. Mathematical Biosciences, 274, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2016.01.006

In this paper we consider epidemic models of directly transmissible SIR (susceptible - infective - recovered) and SEIR (with an additional latent class) infections in fully-susceptible populations with a social structure, consisting either of househo... Read More about Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures II: comparisons and implications for vaccination.