All Outputs (7)

SIR epidemics in populations with large sub-communities (2024)
Journal Article
Ball, F., Sirl, D., & Trapman, P. (in press). SIR epidemics in populations with large sub-communities. Annals of Applied Probability,

We investigate final outcome properties of an SIR (susceptible → in-fective → recovered) epidemic model defined on a population of large sub-communities in which there is stronger disease transmission within the communities than between them. Our ana... Read More about SIR epidemics in populations with large sub-communities.

The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity (2023)
Journal Article
Ball, F., Critcher, L., Neal, P., & Sirl, D. (2023). The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 87(6), Article 83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-02010-7

The disease-induced herd immunity level hD is the fraction of the population that must be infected by an epidemic to ensure that a new epidemic among the remaining susceptible population is not supercritical. For a homogeneously mixing population hD... Read More about The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity.

The Bayesian Spatial Bradley–Terry model: Urban deprivation modelling in Tanzania (2022)
Journal Article
Seymour, R. G., Sirl, D., Preston, S. P., Dryden, I. L., Ellis, M. J., Perrat, B., & Goulding, J. (2022). The Bayesian Spatial Bradley–Terry model: Urban deprivation modelling in Tanzania. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 71(2), 288-308. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12532

Identifying the most deprived regions of any country or city is key if policy makers are to design successful interventions. However, locating areas with the greatest need is often surprisingly challenging in developing countries. Due to the logistic... Read More about The Bayesian Spatial Bradley–Terry model: Urban deprivation modelling in Tanzania.

A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges (2019)
Journal Article
Ball, F., Britton, T., Yin Leung, K., & Sirl, D. (2019). A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 78(6), 1875-1951. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-019-01329-4

A Markovian SIR (Susceptible – Infectious - Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take preventive measures by dropping edges to infectious neighbours. An ef... Read More about A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges.

Peer assessment of mathematical understanding using comparative judgement (2017)
Journal Article
Jones, I., & Sirl, D. (2017). Peer assessment of mathematical understanding using comparative judgement

It is relatively straightforward to assess procedural knowledge and difficult to assess conceptual understanding in mathematics. One reason is that conceptual understanding is better assessed using open-ended test questions that invite an unpredictab... Read More about Peer assessment of mathematical understanding using comparative judgement.

Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure (2017)
Journal Article
Ball, F., & Sirl, D. J. (2018). Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 76(1/2), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-017-1139-0

This paper is concerned with the analysis of vaccination strategies in a stochastic SIR (susceptible ? infected ? removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals with a random network of social contacts that is also p... Read More about Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure.

Epidemics on random intersection graphs (2014)
Journal Article
Ball, F. G., Sirl, D. J., & Trapman, P. (2014). Epidemics on random intersection graphs. Annals of Applied Probability, 24(3), https://doi.org/10.1214/13-AAP942

In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible → Infectious → Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of cliques, each of rando... Read More about Epidemics on random intersection graphs.