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Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change (2021)
Journal Article
Gudmundsson, L., Boulange, J., Do, H. X., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., …Zhao, F. (2021). Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change. Science, 371(6534), 1159-1162. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3996

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patter... Read More about Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change.

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study (2021)
Journal Article
Reinecke, R., Müller Schmied, H., Trautmann, T., Seaby Andersen, L., Burek, P., Flörke, M., …Döll, P. (2021). Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(2), 787-810. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021

Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change w... Read More about Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study.

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study (2021)
Journal Article
Reinecke, R., Schmied, H., Trautmann, T., Andersen, L. S., Burek, P., Flörke, M., …Döll, P. (2021). Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(2), 787-810. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021

Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change w... Read More about Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study.

International perceptions of urban blue-green infrastructure: A comparison across four cities (2021)
Journal Article
O’Donnell, E. C., Netusil, N. R., Chan, F. K. S., Dolman, N. J., & Gosling, S. N. (2021). International perceptions of urban blue-green infrastructure: A comparison across four cities. Water, 13(4), Article 544. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040544

© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Blue-Green infrastructure (BGI) is recognised internationally as an approach for managing urban water challenges while enhancing society and the environment through the provision of multiple c... Read More about International perceptions of urban blue-green infrastructure: A comparison across four cities.

Global Terrestrial Water Storage and Drought Severity under Climate Change (2021)
Journal Article
Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke, A., …Wada, Y. (2021). Global Terrestrial Water Storage and Drought Severity under Climate Change. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) modulates the hydrological cycle and is a key determinant of water availability and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been increasingly studied, future changes in TWS and the linkages to dro... Read More about Global Terrestrial Water Storage and Drought Severity under Climate Change.

Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change (2021)
Journal Article
Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke, A., …Wada, Y. (2021). Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) modulates the hydrological cycle and is a key determinant of water availability and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been increasingly studied, future changes in TWS and the linkages to dro... Read More about Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change.

Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication (2021)
Working Paper
Telteu, C., Müller Schmied, H., Thiery, W., Leng, G., Burek, P., Liu, X., …Herz, F. Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication

Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle, on the global scale, and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modeling frameworks and consider different underlyin... Read More about Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication.

Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales (2020)
Journal Article
Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T., …Frieler, K. (2020). Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales. Earth's Future, 8(12), https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001616

©2020. The Authors. The extent and impact of climate-related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure... Read More about Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales.

How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change (2020)
Journal Article
Krysanova, V., Zaherpour, J., Didovets, I., Gosling, S. N., Gerten, D., Hanasaki, N., …Wada, Y. (2020). How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change. Climatic Change, 163, 1353–1377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0

© 2020, The Author(s). Importance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating o... Read More about How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change.

Using Recurrent Neural Network for Intelligent Prediction of Water Level in Reservoirs (2020)
Conference Proceeding
Zhang, J., Zhang, Z., Weng, Y., Gosling, S., Yang, H., Yang, C., …Ma, Q. (2020). Using Recurrent Neural Network for Intelligent Prediction of Water Level in Reservoirs. . https://doi.org/10.1109/COMPSAC48688.2020.0-108

© 2020 IEEE. Water resources management over long term has faced a great challenge due to the increasing demands on water from a growing number of population and a huge variance of water usage in different time and place. Therefore, a new time series... Read More about Using Recurrent Neural Network for Intelligent Prediction of Water Level in Reservoirs.

Global Heat Uptake by Inland Waters (2020)
Journal Article
Vanderkelen, I., Lipzig, N. P. M., Lawrence, D. M., Droppers, B., Golub, M., Gosling, S. N., …Thiery, W. (2020). Global Heat Uptake by Inland Waters. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(12), Article e2020GL087867. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087867

©2020. The Authors. Heat uptake is a key variable for understanding the Earth system response to greenhouse gas forcing. Despite the importance of this heat budget, heat uptake by inland waters has so far not been quantified. Here we use a unique com... Read More about Global Heat Uptake by Inland Waters.

Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation (2020)
Journal Article
Xuan Do, H., Zhao, F., Westra, S., Leonard, M., Gudmundsson, L., Eric Stanislas Boulange, J., …Wada, Y. (2020). Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24(3), 1543-1564. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020

© Author(s) 2020. To improve the understanding of trends in extreme flows related to flood events at the global scale, historical and future changes of annual maxima of 7 d streamflow are investigated, using a comprehensive streamflow archive and six... Read More about Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes (2019)
Journal Article
Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Reyer, C., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., …Warszawski, L. (2019). State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes. Nature Communications, 10, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically ac... Read More about State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.

Exploring the value of machine learning for weighted multi-model combination of an ensemble of global hydrological models (2019)
Journal Article
Zaherpour, J., Mount, N., Gosling, S., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Gerten, D., …Wada, Y. (2019). Exploring the value of machine learning for weighted multi-model combination of an ensemble of global hydrological models. Environmental Modelling and Software, 114, 112-128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.01.003

This study presents a novel application of machine learning to deliver optimised, multi-model combinations (MMCs) of Global Hydrological Model (GHM) simulations. We exemplify the approach using runoff simulations from five GHMs across 40 large global... Read More about Exploring the value of machine learning for weighted multi-model combination of an ensemble of global hydrological models.

Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets (2018)
Journal Article
Wartenburger, R., Seneviratne, S. I., Hirschi, M., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., …Zhou, T. (2018). Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets. Environmental Research Letters, 13(7), Article 075001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4bb

© 2018 The Author(s). Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recent... Read More about Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets.

Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts (2018)
Journal Article
Zaherpour, J., Gosling, S. N., Mount, N. J., Müller Schmied, H., Veldkamp, T., Dankers, R., …Wada, Y. (2018). Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts. Environmental Research Letters, 13(6), https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac547

Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here... Read More about Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure (2018)
Journal Article
Thompson, D., Johnson, D., Wood, R., Darch, G., Chapman, L., Hughes, P., …Hall, J. (2018). A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure. Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2121), https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0298

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, ove... Read More about A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure.

Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improves estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study (2018)
Journal Article
Veldkamp, T. I. E., Zhao, F., Ward, P. J., Moel, H. D., Aerts, J. C., Müller Schmied, H., …Wada, Y. (in press). Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improves estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study. Environmental Research Letters, 13(5), Article 055008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab96f

Human activities have a profound influence on river discharge, hydrological extremes, and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of... Read More about Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improves estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study.

Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study (2018)
Journal Article
Hattermann, F., Vetter, T., Breuer, L., Su, B., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., …Krysanova, V. (2018). Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study. Environmental Research Letters, 13(1), Article 5006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938

Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from mul... Read More about Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study.