Research Repository

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Exploring the value of machine learning for weighted multi-model combination of an ensemble of global hydrological models (2019)
Journal Article
Zaherpour, J., Mount, N., Gosling, S., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Gerten, D., …Wada, Y. (in press). Exploring the value of machine learning for weighted multi-model combination of an ensemble of global hydrological models. Environmental Modelling and Software,

This study presents a novel application of machine learning to deliver optimised, multi-model combinations (MMCs) of Global Hydrological Model (GHM) simulations. We exemplify the approach using runoff simulations from five GHMs across 40 large global... Read More

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure (2018)
Journal Article
Thompson, D., Johnson, D., Wood, R., Darch, G., Chapman, L., Hughes, P., …Hall, J. (2018). A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure. Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2121), doi:10.1098/rsta.2017.0298. ISSN 1364-503X

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, ove... Read More

Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study (2018)
Journal Article
Hattermann, F., Vetter, T., Breuer, L., Su, B., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., …Krysanova, V. (2018). Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study. Environmental Research Letters, 13(1), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938. ISSN 1748-9326

Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from mul... Read More

Adaptation to climate change: a comparative analysis of modelling methods for heat-related mortality (2017)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., Hondula, D. M., Bunker, A., Ibarreta, D., Liu, J., Zhang, X., & Sauerborn, R. (2017). Adaptation to climate change: a comparative analysis of modelling methods for heat-related mortality. Environmental Health Perspectives, 125(8), doi:10.1289/EHP634. ISSN 0091-6765

Background: Multiple methods are employed for modelling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition... Read More

The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models (2017)
Journal Article
Zhao, F., Veldkamp, T. I., Frieler, K., Schewe, J., Ostberg, S., Willner, S., …Yamazaki, D. (2017). The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models. Environmental Research Letters, 12(7), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7250. ISSN 1748-9326

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examinati... Read More

Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century (2017)
Journal Article
Veldkamp, T., Wada, Y., Aerts, J., Döll, P., Gosling, S. N., Liu, J., …Ward, P. (in press). Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century. Nature Communications, 8, doi:10.1038/ncomms15697. ISSN 2041-1723

Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and w... Read More

Water scarcity assessments in the past, present and future (2017)
Journal Article
Liu, J., Yang, H., Gosling, S. N., Kummu, M., Flörke, M., Pfister, S., …Oki, T. (in press). Water scarcity assessments in the past, present and future. Earth's Future, doi:10.1002/2016EF000518. ISSN 2328-4277

Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio-economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a... Read More

Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations (2017)
Journal Article
Liu, X., Tang, Q., Cui, H., Mu, M., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., …Wada, Y. (2017). Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations. Environmental Research Letters, 12(2), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5a3a. ISSN 1748-9326

Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water use... Read More

Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering (2016)
Journal Article
Irvine, P. J., Kravitz, B., Lawrence, M. G., Gerten, D., Caminade, C., Gosling, S. N., …Smith, S. J. (2017). Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering. Earth's Future, 5(1), doi:10.1002/2016EF000389. ISSN 2328-4277

Despite a growing literature on the climate response to solar geoengineering – proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo – there has been little published on the impacts of solar geoengineering on natural and human systems such... Read More

Perspectives on synoptic climate classification and its role in interdisciplinary research (2016)
Journal Article
Dixon, P. G., Allen, M., Gosling, S. N., Hondula, D. M., Ingole, V., Lucas, R., & Vanos, J. K. (2016). Perspectives on synoptic climate classification and its role in interdisciplinary research. Geography Compass, 10(4), doi:10.1111/gec3.12264. ISSN 1749-8198

Synoptic climatology has a long history of research where weather data are aggregated and composited to gain a better understanding of atmospheric effects on non-atmospheric variables. This has resulted in an applied scientific discipline that yields... Read More

Enhancing the spatial resolution of satellite-derived land surface temperature mapping for urban areas (2015)
Journal Article
Feng, X., Foody, G., Aplin, P., & Gosling, S. (2015). Enhancing the spatial resolution of satellite-derived land surface temperature mapping for urban areas. Sustainable Cities and Society, 19, doi:10.1016/j.scs.2015.04.007. ISSN 2210-6707

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important environmental variable for urban studies such as those focused on the urban heat island (UHI). Though satellite-derived LST could be a useful complement to traditional LST data sources, the spatial resol... Read More

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale (2014)
Journal Article
Arnell, N., & Gosling, S. N. (2014). The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change, 134(3), doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. ISSN 0165-0009

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5×0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scena... Read More